The Atlanta Braves (19-21) wrap up their 3-game series with the Miami Marlins (17-22) Sunday at loanDepot park with the first pitch scheduled for 1:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Marlins odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Atlanta won the first 2 games of this series by a combined score of 9-6. The Braves lead the season series with the Marlins 3-2 and Atlanta has a plus-3 run differential in those meetings.
Braves at Marlins projected starters
RHP Ian Anderson vs. RHP Sandy Alcantara
Anderson is 3-2 with a 3.75 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 4.5 BB/9 and 6.3 K/9 in 36 IP across 7 starts.
- Last start: Loss, 1-0, Monday at the Milwaukee Brewers with 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 3 K.
- 2022 vs. the Marlins: No-decision in 9-7 home loss April 23 with 5 IP, 2 ER (3 R), 6 H, 1 HR, 3 BB and 4 K.
- vs. Marlins on the current roster: 4.64 FIP with a .250/.322/.404 expected batting average (xBA), wOBA (xwOBA) and slugging percentage (xSLG), 20.6 K% and 84.7 mph exit velocity (EV) in 97 plate appearances (PA).
Alcantara is 3-2 with a 2.49 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in 50 2/3 IP over 8 starts.
- Last start: Win, 8-2, Monday at home vs. the Washington Nationals with 8 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 5 K.
- 2021 vs. the Braves: 2-1 with 2.05 ERA (26 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 1.10 WHIP and 7.2 K/9 in 4 starts.
- vs. Braves on the current roster: 2.93 FIP with a .215/.280/.331 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line, 21.6 K% and 88.6 mph EV in 116 PA.
Braves at Marlins odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:05 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Braves -103 (bet $103 to win $100) | Marlins -117 (bet $117 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (+165) | Marlins +1.5 (-205)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +112 | U: -140)
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Braves at Marlins picks and predictions
Prediction
Braves 5, Marlins 4
Money line
LEAN BRAVES (-103) because this number feels suspiciously low considering how much better Alcantara has been both this season and vs. Atlanta compared to Anderson and his history vs. the Marlins.
Most of Anderson’s advanced pitching numbers have dipped year over year and Alcantara ranks in the 76th percentile or better in xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line, barrel rate and EV, per Statcast.
Alcantara also has a 1.62 ERA in his last 5 starts vs. Atlanta, Anderson has a 4.30 ERA in his last 5 starts vs. Miami and the Braves won the first 2 games in this road series so they might coast through the series finale. Yet Braves-Marlins is priced as a coin-flip. Hmmm.
It’s only a LEAN to the BRAVES (-103) since the Marlins have an edge in the starting pitching matchup and Miami’s lineup has been a lot more productive at the plate than Atlanta’s over the past two weeks.
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS because I only “lean” towards Atlanta on the ML and I’m not confident enough to lay it with the Braves -1.5 (+165).
Over/Under
BET OVER 7.5 (+112) because the Over has cashed in 3 of the last 4 Braves-Marlins meetings, these teams are a combined 16-11 O/U in NL East games and 7-6 O/U when these starters take the mound and Miami is 13-8 O/U at home.
The market might be hammering the Under since loanDepot Park is pitcher-friendly, both starters are “top-of-the-rotation” guys with Alcantara pitching at an All-Star caliber and Anderson was 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA in last year’s playoffs en route to an Atlanta World Series crown.
The OVER 7.5 (+112) is my favorite bet in the Braves-Marlins game.
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