The Atlanta Braves (29-31) and Miami Marlins (27-35) will begin a three-game series Friday night at loanDepot Park, with first pitch coming at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Marlins odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Charlie Morton is the projected starting pitcher for the Braves. He is 5-2 with a 4.21 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 10.5 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 in 62 IP over 12 starts.
The Braves are 4-1 in Morton’s last five starts, a span in which he hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in a single outing. His last time out, he had 5 IP, allowing 2 ER, while recording 5 K and 1 BB in a 6-4 Braves win vs. the Dodgers Saturday. The Braves have scored at least four runs in four of his last five starts.
RHP Sandy Alcantara is the projected starting pitcher for the Marlins. He is 3-5 with a 3.30 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 8.4 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 in 79 IP over 13 starts.
Despite some strong outings by Alcantara recently, the Marlins are just 2-3 in his last five starts. His last start, he allowed 0 ER in 8 IP with 6K and 2 BB in the Marlins’ 3-1 win at Pittsburgh Sunday. In his career against the Braves, he’s 0-0 with a 2.88 ERA in four starts.
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Braves at Marlins odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:31 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Braves -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Marlins +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Against the spread/ATS: Braves -1.5 (+135) | Marlins +1.5 (-160)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Braves 5, Marlins 3
Money line (ML)
The Braves dropped two of three to the Phillies this week, but they’re still 4-3 in their last seven games – which compares favorably to the Marlins’ 3-7 stretch in the last 10. Alcantara has been pitching well, but he hasn’t received the best run support from the Marlins.
I like the BRAVES (-130) to win outright tonight with Morton on the mound and the offense looking to bounce back from a lull in the last two games.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
In their last 10 games, the Braves have covered the spread seven times. While they’ve been excellent against the spread lately, their ATS record still sits at only 26-34 this season.
Though I’d much rather bet on the money line, I’d give a slight lean toward the BRAVES -1.5 (+135) tonight on the road.
Over/Under (O/U)
The Braves have scored the ninth-most runs per game this season, which compares favorably to the Marlins who are just 23rd. The total has only gone Over in four of the Braves’ last 10, and in six of the Marlins’ 10 most recent games.
Give me the OVER 7.5 (-110) tonight, but only make it a small wager.
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