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The Atlanta Braves (51-39) and Arizona Diamondbacks (45-47) play the 3rd contest of a 4-game series Wednesday. First pitch from Chase Field is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network/ESPN+). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Braves vs. Diamondbacks odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Braves lead 5-0
The Braves opened the series with a 5-4 victory on Monday night, and Atlanta followed that up with a dominant wire-to-wire 6-2 win Tuesday behind All-Star LHP Chris Sale. A late insurance run in the top of the 8th inning by the Braves helped flip the total (7.5) from an Under to Over.
The Diamondbacks have dropped 2 in a row, and 3 of the past 5 outings, and its pitching which has been Arizona’s undoing. The Snakes have allowed 27 runs in the past 5 games, or 5.4 runs per game (RPG), while allowing 5.6 RPG in the previous 17 outings.
Arizona has cashed the Over at a 1-0-1 pace at most shops in the 1st 2 games of this series, while the total has gone high at a 7-0-1 clip in the previous 8 outings, and 11-2-1 in the past 14 contests.
For Atlanta, the spate of higher-scoring games is against the recent trends. The Braves have still cashed the Under at an 11-3-2 pace in the past 16 outings.
Braves at Diamondbacks projected starters
RHP Charlie Morton vs. RHP Slade Cecconi
Morton (5-5, 3.96 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.25 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 in 91 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 5 1/3 IP, 4 (3 ER), 5 H (2 HR), 2 BB, 5 K in 4-2 home setback vs. San Francisco Giants last Thursday
- 2024 road splits: 2-2, 4.28 ERA (40 IP, 19 ER), 1.23 WHIP, .233 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 15 BB, 41 K in 7 starts
- Career vs. Diamondbacks: 5-3, 4.16 ERA (80 IP, 37 ER), 1.34 WHIP, 9.2 K/9 in 14 starts
Cecconi (2-6, 6.10 ERA) makes his 13th start and 14th appearance. He has a 1.31 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in 62 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 2 K in 10-8 road loss vs. San Diego Padres Friday
- 2024 home splits: 0-3, 11.65 ERA (17 IP, 22 ER), 1.88 WHIP, .360 OBA, 5 HR, 5 BB, 18 K in 4 starts
- Has never faced Braves
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Braves at Diamondbacks odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:07 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Braves -136 (bet $136 to win $100) | Diamondbacks +116 (bet $100 to win $116)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (+125) | Diamondbacks +1.5 (-150)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Braves at Diamondbacks picks and predictions
Prediction
Braves 7, Diamondbacks 4
Moneyline
The BRAVES (-136) are a strong play to make it 3-for-3 in this series, as the Atlanta offense should keep it rolling against the erratic Cecconi and the homestanding Diamondbacks (+116).
Cecconi has been very giving, posting a 6.10 ERA overall, while producing a dismal 11.65 ERA in 4 home outings. That simply will not do against the lesser teams, let alone one of the premier teams in all of baseball.
While Morton certainly isn’t dominant, and the Snakes could push a few runs across the plate, go hard against Cecconi.
Run line/Against the spread
The BRAVES -1.5 (+125) are worth playing on the run line, if you’re a little more on the adventurous side. Don’t bet both sides, however, as we’re not looking to double dip.
Atlanta is worth backing against the erratic Cecconi, as he has been hit hard all season in his home park.
Over/Under
OVER 9 (-105) is worth backing, as a pitching matchup between Morton and Cecconi has the potential to see a double-digit run total.
The Over is 4-1-1 in the past 6 meetings in this series, and 6-2-1 in the previous 9 encounters since June 4, 2023. The Over is 2-0-1 in the past 3 battles in the desert in this series, too.
And, again, the Over is 7-0-1 in the past 8 for the Diamondbacks, while going high in Cecconi’s past 2 outings.
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