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The Arizona Diamondbacks (62-60) and San Diego Padres (58-64) meet Friday to continue a 4-game NL West series. First pitch at Petco Park is slated for 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 5-5
Arizona won Thursday’s lid-lifter 3-1. Since dropping 9 straight games from Aug. 1-11, the Diamondbacks have rallied to win 5 of their last 6.
The Padres logged just 3 hits in Thursday’s loss. They have averaged just 3.56 runs per game over their last 9 (.638 OPS) despite twice scoring 10 runs in a game over this stretch.
Diamondbacks at Padres projected starters
RHP Brandon Pfaadt vs. RHP Seth Lugo
Pfaadt (0-6, 6.91 ERA) is tabbed for his 12th career start. He has a 1.52 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 in 54 2/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 2/3 IP, 9 H, 3 R, 2 BB, 8 K in 5-4 loss at San Diego Sunday, his first against the Padres
- 2023 road stats: 0-2, 5-48 ERA in 23 IP across 4 starts
- Rookie truggled early; owns a 4.34 ERA over his last 5 starts
Lugo (4-6, 4.16 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.25 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 97 1/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 4 K in 5-4 home win vs. Arizona Sunday
- 2023 home stats: 2-4, 5.40 ERA in 40 IP across 8 starts
- Career starts vs. Arizona: 0-2, 5.06 ERA in 16 IP (2018-23)
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Diamondbacks at Padres odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:38 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Diamondbacks +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Padres -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Diamondbacks +1.5 (-140) | Padres -1.5 (+115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Diamondbacks at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 4, Diamondbacks 3
Moneyline
Even with Thursday’s triumph, the Diamondbacks are just 10-19 over their last 29 games against San Diego.
The Padres are undervalued as far as talent-to-record is concerned. But as a betting proposition, they offer no value here. San Diego is a lean against the same pitcher they saw last week (and got to for 9 hits), but we should want a price of -165 or better.
The juice is drowning out value on this play: PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
Same problem as above: San Diego is a lean, the Friars -1.5 does not bring enough return until we get to the +120 level. PASS or perhaps keep an eye on this tag throughout the day.
Over/Under
Both starters have been undone by batting averages on balls in play over well .300. There is a little bit of bad luck in their surface lines
Both sides have season O/U results shading toward the Under. The Padres have been part of an Under in 64 of their last 112 games (+11.20 Units, 9% ROI).
The back ends of both bullpens got some rest last night and should be fully available Friday.
BET UNDER 8.5 (+100).
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