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The Arizona Diamondbacks (61-60) and San Diego Padres (58-63) meet Thursday to open a 4-game NL West series. First pitch at Petco Park is slated for 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: San Diego leads 5-4.
Arizona is continuing a trip that opened with a pair of wins in 3 games at the Colorado Rockies. After dropping 9 straight games from Aug. 1-11, the Diamondbacks have rallied to win 4 of their last 5. They are 1 1/2 games out of the final Wild Card spot.
The Padres have also had recent struggles. They went 1-7 from Aug. 6-14. But they enter this series on a 2-game winning streak. They are 4 1/2 games from the final Wild Card spot and 3 games behind Arizona in pursuit of it.
Diamondbacks at Padres projected starters
RHP Zac Gallen vs. LHP Rich Hill
Gallen (12-5, 3.24 ERA) is tabbed for his 26th start of the season. He has a 1.07 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 through 155 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 8 K in 3-0 home win vs. San Diego Padres Saturday
- 2023 road stats: 2-4, 4.72 ERA in 76 1/3 IP across 13 starts (owns a 1.82 ERA across 12 starts at home)
- Last 5 starts vs. Padres: 2-1, 3.68 ERA in 29 1/3 IP
- Coughed up 4 ER in 6 IP at San Diego April 4; has shut out the Padres across 13 IP at home since
Hill (7-12, 5.17 ERA) makes his 25th start. He has a 1.51 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 through 125 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 3 1/3 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 4 K in 3-0 home loss vs. Arizona Saturday
- 2023 home stats: 4-6, 5.33 ERA in 79 1/3 IP across 15 starts
- Last 5 starts vs. Arizona: 0-4, 9.70 ERA in 21 1/3 IP (2018-23); in 2023, has allowed 8 R in 7 1/3 IP
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Diamondbacks at Padres odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:20 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Diamondbacks -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Padres -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Diamondbacks -1.5 (+155) | Padres +1.5 (-190)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Diamondbacks at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 5, Diamondbacks 4
Moneyline
The Snakes are 1-7 across their last 8 series openers. They are just 9-19 over their last 28 games against San Diego.
Gallen is facing the Friars for a 2nd straight start. Since 2021, he has faced a club twice in a row 6 times. The front halves of those doubles made for an aggregate 2.43 ERA; the back halves produced a lofty 7.20 ERA.
The Arizona offense is swung around to the lesser side of its platoon splits against lefties (.721 OPS).
Look for the bullpens to be key in this one and maybe not the back ends as much (both are under fatigue-caution yellow flags): advantage Padres.
BACK THE PADRES (-110).
Run line/Against the spread
No reason to wade through all the juice here. PASS.
Over/Under
Both starters are fly-ball hurlers. An outward breeze is expected on a humid evening in San Diego.
The road version of Gallen, and the back-to-back-against-the-same-team Gallen, mixes with Hill and 2 tired bullpens. A double-digit game would not be a surprise.
Consider a partial-unit play on the OVER 8.5 (-105).
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