The Arizona Diamondbacks (2-2) visit the San Diego Padres (2-2) Monday with the 1st pitch at 9:40 p.m. ET at Petco Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Padres won 2022 season series 14-5
The Diamondbacks split a 4-game series at the Los Angeles Dodgers to start the season, winning 2-1 on Sunday. A 2-out, 9th-inning bunt single by OF Jake McCarthy drove in the winning run. Starter Zach Davies pitched 5 strong innings, allowing 1 ER, 4H, 2 BBs and 4 K’s.
The Padres split their opening series against the Colorado Rockies, winning the final 2 games. On Sunday, a 3-run HR by SS Xander Bogaerts in the 2nd inning was enough offense in a 3-1 win. Starter Seth Lugo went 7 innings and allowed only 1 run on 4 hits.
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Diamondbacks at Padres projected starters
RHP Ryne Nelson vs. LHP Ryan Weathers
Nelson was 1-1 with 1.47 ERA in 2022. He had a 0.82 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 in 18 1/3 IP last season.
- 2 of 3 starts as rookie were against Padres
- 1-1 with 2.19 ERA against Padres in 12 1/3 IP
Weather was 0-0 with a 9.82 ERA in 2022. He had a 2.73 WHIP, 4 BB and 3 K through 3 2/3 IP.
- Had 4.91 ERA in 5 spring training appearences
- Is 0-1 with 6.75 ERA vs. Arizona in 4 appearances (2 starts)
Diamondbacks at Padres odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:41 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Diamondbacks +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Padres -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Diamondbacks +1.5 (-175) | Padres -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Diamondbacks at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 4, Diamondbacks 3
Moneyline
The Diamondbacks were 2-7 in San Diego last season and 5-14 against the Padres overall.
Both teams will have their 5th starter on the mound so expect the bullpens to factor in early. San Diego’s bullpen only worked 2 innings in their win on Sunday, while Arizona’s pitched 4 innings and has gone 14 innings through 4 games.
The rested Padres relievers will be the difference.
BET PADRES (-140).
Run line/Against the spread
The Padres’ 2 wins were both by at least 2 runs while Arizona’s 2 losses have both been by at least 6 runs.
The Padres had baseball’s 2nd-worst home ATS record last season at 32-53 ATS.
Betting the Diamondbacks to cover isn’t as good a value at -175 as the Padres on the moneyline at -140, so PASS on this bet.
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Over/Under
Both teams have had 2 games of more than 8 runs and 2 of fewer than 8. Ten of their 19 games last season had fewer than 8 total runs.
BET UNDER 8 (-105).
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