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The Arizona Diamondbacks (43-44) open a 3-game road series against the San Diego Padres (48-43) Friday. First pitch from Petco Park is at 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Padres lead 4-3
The Diamondbacks are coming off a series win on the road over the Los Angeles Dodgers. They won the finale 9-3 Thursday behind 1B Christian Walker‘s 2 homers and a 4-run 9th inning to blow the game open. They have won 4 of their last 5 games.
The Padres are 11-3 since losing 5 straight games June 14-18. They went 4-2 on their 6-game road trip and won the final 2 games of a series against the Texas Rangers, beating them 3-1 Thursday.
Diamondbacks at Padres projected starters
RHP Slade Cecconi vs. RHP Randy Vasquez
Cecconi (2-6, 5.81 ERA) makes his 12th start and 13th appearance. The rookie has a 1.26 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in 57 1/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 7 K in 9-4 home loss to Oakland A’s June 28
- 2024 vs. Padres: 0-1, 9.35 ERA (8 2/3 IP, 9 ER), 1.73 WHIP, 7.3 K/9 in 2 starts
- Career vs. Padres: 0-1, 7.84 ERA (10 1/3 IP, 9 ER), 1.55 WHIP, 7.0 K/9 in 3 appearances (2 starts)
Vasquez (2-4, 4.88 ERA) makes his 12th start. The rookie has a 1.67 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 5.6 K/9 in 51 2/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 1 K in 9-2 road win over Boston Red Sox June 28
- Went 2-1 with 4.20 ERA in 6 June starts
- 2024 vs. Diamondbacks: 0-0, 4.05 ERA (6 2/3 IP, 3 ER), 6 H, 0 BB, 3 K in 1 start, a 4-3 home loss June 6
- Career vs. Diamondbacks: 0-0, 5.00 ERA (9 IP, 5 ER), 1.22 WHIP, 5.0 K/9 in 2 appearances (1 start)
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Diamondbacks at Padres odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:17 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Diamondbacks -115 (bet $115 to win $105) | Padres -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Diamondbacks -1.5 (+145) | Padres +1.5 (-175)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Diamondbacks at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 6, Diamondbacks 4
Moneyline
The Diamondbacks have lost their last 2 series openers. They are 21-23 on the road this season.
The PADRES (-105) are 24-22 at home this season but are 9-1 in their last 10 games at Petco Park. They have won 3 of the last 4 starts for Vasquez.
The Diamondbacks are 1-3 in Cecconi’s last 4 outings.
BET PADRES (-105).
Run line/Against the spread
The last 10 times the Padres covered the spread, they won the game outright.
So at -175 odds for them to cover the +1.5, you’re better off going with the moneyline.
PASS.
Over/Under
Five of the 7 games between the teams this season have had double-digit runs, including 3 of the 4 in San Diego June 6-9.
Vasquez’s last 3 starts and 4 of his last 6 have had totals of 10 or more.
The Diamondbacks have scored 5 or more runs in 4 straight games and 21 runs in the last 2 games alone.
Nine of the Padres’ last 10 wins have had more than 8 total runs.
BET OVER 8.5 (-110).
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