It’s not exactly a big number, but let’s take the positive where we can. SportsLine used what they called an advanced simulation model, and did just that for the upcoming 2020 NFL season… simulated it, 10,000 times.
In doing so, the Bills ended up with the eight-best odds at winning the Super Bowl. That’s about where the good news stops.
To land in that No. 8 slot, Buffalo hoisted the Lombardi trophy… 2.7 percent of the time. But hey, that’s better than a lot of other teams, at least?
Overall, only four teams landed with over a 10 percent chance of taking home the hardware, those teams were the Saints (10.7%), 49ers (12.5%), Chiefs (20.9%) and the Ravens (22.8%) leading the way.
Surprisingly, according to this simulation via SportsLine, the Bills actually are not the AFC East favorite, though. The Patriots clock in with a 3.4 percent chance at winning the Super Bowl, despite actual oddsmakers currently calling the Bills the divisional favorite. That number for the Pats is also higher than the odds than Tom Brady and the Bucs are given, 2.4 percent.
Here’s the full results of SportsLine‘s simulations:
BAL 22.8%
KC 20.9%
SF 12.5%
NO 10.7%
SEA 4.6%
PHI 3.4%
NE 3.4%
MIN 3.1%
BUF 2.7%
TB 2.4%
DAL 2.4%
PIT 2.2%
LAR 1.5%
GB 1.4%
TEN 1.2%
Other teams < 1%
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