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The Atlanta Braves and San Diego Padres meet Wednesday in Game 2 of their best-of-3 NL Wild Card Series. First pitch is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Braves vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Playoffs series: Padres lead 1-0; Regular-season series: Padres won 4-3
The Braves were running on fumes after playing a makeup doubleheader in Atlanta against the New York Mets Monday just to get into the postseason. After a cross-country flight, the Braves seemed to be lacking energy in a 4-0 loss to the Padres Tuesday in Game 1 of this series. Atlanta, which was a +170 underdog, had just 1 extra-base hit — a double — and 6 singles in the loss.
With ace Chris Sale dealing with back spasms, the Braves called up Triple-A SP AJ Smith-Shawver to make just his 2nd start this season for the big-league club in Tuesday’s Wild Card opener. It didn’t go well as he 21-year-old Texan gave up a leadoff single to NL batting champ DH Luis Arraez and a 2-run homer to RF Fernando Tatis Jr. to the Padres’ first 2 batters. Smith-Shawver allowed another run in the 2nd after hitting a batter followed by a single and a sacrifice fly to the first 3 batters of the inning before being removed. His final line: 1 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 1 K, throwing only 19 of 29 pitches for strikes.
On the flip side, Padres SP Michael King scattered 5 hits across 7 scoreless innings with 12 K’s while throwing 65 of his 89 pitches for strikes for his 1st-career postseason victory. His only previous playoff appearance came in 2 innings of relief for the New York Yankees in a 2020 ALDS.
The Padres were the only home team to win Tuesday out of the 4 Wild Card Games. C Kyle Higashioka had the Padres’ other 2 RBIs behind the 2nd-inning sacrifice fly and an 8th-inning solo homer..
Atlanta is still 8-4 across the past 12 games.
Braves at Padres projected starters
LHP Max Fried vs. RHP Joe Musgrove
Fried (11-10, 3.25 ERA) made 29 regular-season starts. He had a 1.16 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 174 1/3 innings with 1 complete game.
- Last start: Win, 8 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 9 K in 3-0 home victory vs. Kansas City Royals Friday
- 2024 road splits: 7-6, 3.26 ERA (99 1/3 IP, 36 ER), 10 HR, 33 BB, 99 K, .215 opponents batting average (OBA), 1.12 WHIP in 17 starts
- Last 7 starts: 4-3, 2.36 ERA (45 2/3 IP, 12 ER), 1.00 WHIP, 47 K
- 2024 vs. Padres: 1 road start, loss, 4 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 9 H, 3 BB, 2 K in 3-1 defeat May 17
- Career vs. Padres: 3-1, 2.30 (31 1/3 IP, 8 ER), 1.09 WHIP, 23 K, 1 complete game in 5 starts
- Career postseason: 2-4, 4.57 ERA (65 IP, 33 ER), 1.42 WHIP, 64 K in 11 starts and 8 relief appearances
Musgrove (6-5, 3.88 ERA) made 19 regular-season starts. He had a 1.17 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 in 99 2/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 H (1 HR), 1 BB, 6 K in 7-2 loss at LA Dodgers Sept. 26
- 2024 home splits: 4-4, 3.86 ERA (65 1/3 IP, 28 ER), 12 HR, 11 BB, 70 K, .241 OBA, 1.07 WHIP in 12 starts
- Last 7 starts: 3-1, 2.38 ERA (41 2/3 IP, 11 ER), 0.86 WHIP, 50 K
- Career vs. Braves: 3-1, 4.29 (42 IP, 20 ER), 1.21 WHIP, 41 K in 8 starts — last facing Atlanta in 2022
- Career postseason: 2-1, 4.26 ERA (25 1/3 IP, 12 ER), 21 K, 1.11 WHIP in 3 starts and 7 relief appearances
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Braves at Padres odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 5:32 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Braves +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Padres -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves +1.5 (-250) | Padres -1.5 (+175)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Braves at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Braves 3, Padres 2
Moneyline
The BRAVES (+100) are worth a look at even-money behind the southpaw Fried.
The Padres (-120) use the hometown pitcher Musgrove, who is from nearby El Cajon, Calif. Like Fried, he has pitched well down the stretch. The difference is that the lefty Fried has handled himself a little better over the years against San Diego.
Run line/Against the spread
The Braves +1.5 (-200) will set you back 2 times the potential return. That’s too much risk for a little insurance. AVOID.
Over/Under
UNDER 6.5 (+100) might be the best play on the board. I’d wait it out to see if the O/U line jumps to 7 though.
The Atlanta bats were asleep after the double dip Monday, overnight travel, quick turnaround and scrambling to find a starter for Game 1. Things are a little more back to normal with Fried toeing the slab.
The Under is 8-1-1 in the past 10 games for Atlanta, while going 4-1-1 in the past 6 games on the road.
For San Diego, the total has gone low at an 11-2-1 pace in the past 14 outings, while cashing at a 6-0-1 clip in the past 7 at Petco Park.
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