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The Atlanta Braves and San Diego Padres meet in Game 1 of the NL Wild Card series on Tuesday. First pitch is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Braves vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Regular-season series: Padres won 4-3
The Braves saved their best for last. In a makeup doubleheader against the New York Mets on Monday, Atlanta lost 8-7 in a wild Game 1. In Game 2, the Braves needed a win, and they notched a 3-0 victory as a heavy favorite (-275) as the Under (9) cashed.
Atlanta wrapped up the regular season 8-3 in the final 11 games, while the Under went 7-1-1 in the last 9 outings. The Braves allowed 1 or 0 runs in 4 of the final 6 contests, too.
LHP Chris Sale missed the regular-season finale due to back spasms, and he will not be available to pitch until at least the NLDS, should the Braves qualify.
The Braves have not yet announced a starter for Game 1 at the time of publishing.
The Padres lost 11-2 on Sunday to the Arizona Diamondbacks in the regular-season finale, but they managed an 11-4 record since Sept. 13. The Under went 10-2-1 in the final 13 contests.
Braves at Padres projected starters
TBD vs. RHP Michael King
The Braves have 3 options for Game 1. RHP Ian Anderson, RHP Bryce Elder and RHP AJ Smith-Shawver.
- Anderson (4-0, 1.26 ERA) 35 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 20 H (1 HR), 17 BB, 40 K, .159 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 0.94 WHIP in 8 postseason starts. Hasn’t appeared in MLB since 2022
- Elder (2-5, 6.52 ERA) 49 2/3 IP, 36 ER, 64 H (8 HR), 17 BB, 46 K, .311 OBA, 1.63 WHIP in 10 MLB starts in 2024
- Smith-Shawver (0-0, 0.00 ERA), 4 1/3 IP, 3 H, 2 BB, 4 K, .188 OBA, 1.15 WHIP in 1 MLB start in 2024
King (13-9, 2.95 ERA) made 30 regular-season starts and 1 relief appearance. He had a 1.19 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 in 173 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 5 IP, 1 R (0 ER), 3 H, 2 BB, 3 K in 4-2 road victory vs. LA Dodgers Sept. 24
- 2024 home splits: 4-5, 3.32 ERA, 78 2/3 IP, 29 ER, 8 HR, 29 BB, 109 K, .223 OBA, 1.22 WHIP in 14 starts
- Last 7 games: 3-3, 2.11 ERA (38 1/3 IP, 9 ER), 32 H, 16 BB, 40 K, 1.25 WHIP
- Career vs. Braves: 0-0, 0.00 (3 2/3 IP, 0 ER), 1 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 1 relief appearance in 2023
- Career postseason: 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 2 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 0 BB, 1 K in 1 relief appearance with New York Yankees in 2020
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Braves at Padres odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 6:28 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Braves +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Padres -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves +1.5 (-160) | Padres -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: +100 | U: -120)
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Braves at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 4, Braves 2
Moneyline
The PADRES (-165) are a moderate favorite against the Braves (+140), who are feeling fortunate to have made the postseason, but they’re likely to be a bit exhausted, too.
Atlanta had to expend a lot of energy to split a doubleheader against the Mets just to get into the postseason, and then it jumped a Delta Airlines charter flight which left Atlanta at 10:19 p.m. ET, arriving into San Diego at 2:24 a.m. ET. That’s a super-tough turnaround.
Run line/Against the spread
If you’re a little more ‘brave’, forget the moneyline and go straight to the PADRES -1.5 (+135) at plus-money.
Adrenaline will only go so far for the Braves +1.5 (-160), and they’re facing a tough customer in King. While the San Diego right-hander doesn’t have the postseason experience, he was red-hot down the stretch. And, Atlanta is scrambling for a starter after using top-tier pitching in the double dip just to get here.
Over/Under
UNDER 7 (-120) is the lean, but go with a half-unit play.
The Padres didn’t have to travel far from Arizona on Sunday, and they’ll likely have their hitting shoes on. However, expect the Braves to be a bit sluggish after the double dip, and the overnight travel. It’s a good combination to go low.
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