San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”4141″ ]

The San Diego Padres (91-68) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (88-71) begin a 3-game series Friday at Chase Field in Phoenix. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network/ESPN+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Padres vs. Diamondbacks odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 5-5

The Padres lost the final 2 games in a 3-game set against the Dodgers in Los Angeles after winning the series opener Tuesday 4-2. San Diego lost 7-2 on Thursday as a slight underdog (-106) as the Over (8.5) cashed. That halted a 8-0-1 run to the Under dating back to Sept. 15.

The Diamondbacks stopped a 3-game losing streak with an 8-2 victory against the San Francisco Giants on Wednesday as a heavy favorite (-256) while the Over (9) cashed. The total is on a 3-0-1 run for the D-backs.

These teams haven’t met since July 5-7 in San Diego, when Arizona took 2 of 3 games at Petco Park. The Over cashed in all 3 meetings in that series, with the Snakes averaging 8.0 runs per game (RPG), and the Padres averaging 5.3 RPG.

The last time these teams met in Phoenix was back on May 3-5, with the Padres winning 2 of 3 games. The Over cashed in 2 of those 3 outings, too. The Over is on a 6-0 run, while hitting in 8 of the past 9, in this series.

Padres at Diamondbacks projected starters

RHP Yu Darvish vs. RHP Merrill Kelly

Darvish (6-3, 3.18 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.06 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 76 1/3 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 3 H (2 solo HR), 0 BB, 9 K in 4-2 home victory vs. Chicago White Sox Sunday
  • 2024 road splits: 3-0, 2.05 ERA, 22 IP, 5 ER, 16 H, 3 HR, 4 BB, 21 K, .203 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 0.91 WHIP in 4 starts
  • Last 7 games: 3-2, 4.04 ERA, 35 2/3 IP, 16 ER, 34 H, 7 BB, 37 K, 1.15 WHIP
  • Career vs. Diamondbacks: 8-4, 3.55 ERA, 101 1/3 IP, 40 ER, 85 H, 15 HR, 35 BB, 131 K, 1.18 WHIP, 11.6 K/9 in 18 starts

Kelly (5-0, 3.71 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in 68 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 5 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 6 K in 5-0 road victory vs. Milwaukee Brewers last Saturday
  • 2024 home splits: 2-0, 3.55 ERA, 33 IP, 13 ER, 7 HR, 8 BB, 23 K, .228 OBA, 1.09 WHIP in 6 starts
  • Last 7 games: 2-0, 4.70 ERA, 38 1/3 IP, 20 ER, 10 BB, 32 K, 1.28 WHIP
  • Career vs. Padres: 9-3, 3.05 ERA, 82 2/3 IP, 28 ER, 11 HR, 31 BB, 78 K, 1.19 WHIP in 15 starts

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Padres at Diamondbacks odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 8:56 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Padres +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Diamondbacks -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-200) | Diamondbacks -1.5 (+165)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)

[gambcom-standard rankid=”4132″ ]

Padres at Diamondbacks picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 4, Diamondbacks 3

Moneyline

The PADRES (+105) are a solid road ‘dog behind the veteran Darvish, as they look to snap a 2-game losing streak and build a little momentum heading into the postseason.

The Diamondbacks (-125) aren’t as good of a play because of Kelly. While he is unbeaten this season in 5 decisions, he was lifted from his most recent start due to cramping. It’s uncertain how long he’ll be able to go, and how effective he’ll be.

Run line/Against the spread

The Padres +1.5 (-200) are a little too pricey for a standalone wager, if you’re like a little bit of insurance. However, as part of a multi-leg parlay, throwing them in isn’t the end of the world.

The Padres have won Darvish’s past 4 starts since he returned from injury, so they’re a much better play straight up.

PASS.

Over/Under

UNDER 9 (-115) is a solid play in a game which should have a playoff feel. The Padres are already into the postseason field, and the Diamondbacks are a good bet to snap up one of the other Wild Card spots.

While the Under has cashed in 6 straight meetings, these teams haven’t faced each other since early July, so that can be discarded. What’s more important is that the Under is 8-1-1 in the past 10 games for the Padres.

And, while the Diamondbacks have cashed high at a 3-0-1 clip in the past 4 games, the Under is 3-1 in Kelly’s past 4 starts.

Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

[gambcom-standard rankid=”6305″ ]

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.

Fantasy baseball help from BaseballHQ.com:
Subscribe now to dominate the competition.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]