After starting the regular season 0-2, the Jacksonville Jaguars look to get in the win column for the first time this year as they travel to Buffalo for Monday Night Football in Week 3.
This week the Jaguars are still searching for their identity on offense and are currently facing scrutiny for their inconsistent offensive execution and play-calling. This could prove detrimental in trying to keep up with the Bills, which feature one of the powerhouse offenses in the AFC, led by quarterback Josh Allen.
Week 3 of the regular season is now a must-win for the Jaguars and they must prove they can contend with top teams in the conference like the Bills. Finding their offensive identity and consistency will be key, and if they fail to do so at this crucial point of the season on the national stage, it will become fair to wonder if their issues can be fixed this year.
With that in mind, Jaguars Wire is here to identify three key matchups for Jacksonville’s Week 3 road matchup against Buffalo, which the Jaguars must win to avoid digging themselves into a deeper hole.
Jaguars WR Christian Kirk vs. Bills’ linebackers and slot cornerback
Through two games, the Jaguars starting slot receiver has just two catches on seven targets for 29 yards. While it is early in the season, Kirk’s lack of significant targets has been concerning, especially amid Jacksonville’s offensive struggles.
Yet, Monday night presents an opportunity for Jaguars offensive coordinator Press Taylor and head coach Doug Pederson to get Kirk heavily involved in the offensive game plan.
The Bills’ man coverage rate this season is just 20 percent as they remain a zone-heavy, two-high safety team that will leave plenty of green grass. That creates an advantage for Kirk, who has a knack for identifying the soft spots in zone coverage.
A top target in the middle of the field for quarterback Trevor Lawrence over the last two seasons, Kirk led the Jaguars with 1,108 receiving yards in 2022 and was on track for over 1,000 in 2023 before a Week 13, year-ending injury. He has proven productive and effective with an average target separation of over three yards in the last two seasons.
With linebacker Terrel Bernard and nickel corner Taron Johnson out for Monday night’s bout, Buffalo could be thin at both spots, meaning Jacksonville could open up its passing game with Kirk as the focal point.
Baylon Spector and Cam Lewis are expected to start in place of Bernard and Johnson, respectively.
Jacksonville’s defense vs. Buffalo’s offense
While the Jaguars’ offense has sputtered to this point, Jacksonville’s defense is respectable, and daring in coverage.
According to Next Gen Stats, Jacksonville aligned its outside corners in press coverage on 36 percent of snaps. That is the fourth-highest mark in the league, showing that defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen trusts his corners on an island.
The unit deploys Cover 1 coverage 53% of the time, per Hayden Winks, despite the absence of cornerback Tyson Campbell. Nielsen utilizes broad man coverage on 52.6 percent of opposing dropbacks, the highest rate in the NFL.
Thus far, passers are averaging 6.5 passing yards per play against the Jaguars, ranking No. 21 in the league. Quarterbacks are struggling to score through the air against Jacksonville, though, as Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa and Cleveland’s Deshaun Watson combined to throw for one touchdown in Weeks 1-2.
Jacksonville’s man coverage will be tested against arguably the best NFL signal-caller not named Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and his offensive coordinator Joe Brady on Monday night.
Next Gen Stats show Allen producing the lowest air yards per attempt of his career at 7.4 this season, despite his career-high 73.8% completion percentage through the first two games. This shows that Brady is allowing Allen to distribute the ball around the offense and trusting receivers to compete after the catch.
Considering how difficult Allen is to defend as both a passer and runner, there’s a possibility Nielsen could veer off his man coverage path and play more zone this week. Perhaps it is unlikely given his tendencies as a play-caller, but this is something to keep in mind ahead of Monday night.
Not only will Allen present a tough task, but so will tight end Dalton Kincaid, running back James Cook and receiver Khalil Shakir. The latter owns the highest catch rate of all wide receivers in the league at 88.7 percent.
If Jacksonville can force Allen into bad decisions against its man-heavy defense and limit his rushing opportunities, the Jaguars’ struggling offense should obtain more opportunities to find a rhythm compared to previous games.
Jacksonville’s offense vs. Buffalo’s defense
While Kirk could be the focus of the Jaguars’ passing offense against the Bills, the unit must perform better situationally across the board in its attempt to establish an identity of any sort.
It starts up front. Lawrence’s protection must improve Monday night against a strong Bills pass rush featuring Von Miller and Gregory Rousseau.
Lawrence has been sacked on a league-high 11.5 percent of dropbacks this season, according to Next Gen Stats. Perhaps Lawrence is responsible for some of the pressure he has faced, but Pro Football Focus dings Jacksonville’s offensive line for allowing six of the seven sacks he has taken.
Next Gen Stats also notes the Jaguars own the third-worst time to pressure in the NFL in 2024, 2.57 seconds.
While explosive plays have occasionally popped up from the likes of running back Travis Etienne Jr. and rookie wideout Brian Thomas Jr, the Jaguars must do a better job of winning on early downs to make third downs more manageable and become less reliant on chunk gains.
Jacksonville has converted just over 26% of its third-down attempts, the fifth-worst mark in the league ahead of Denver, Atlanta, Cleveland and Carolina. The offense will sail much smoother if it can improve drastically in this area.
The Jaguars will be without versatile tight end Evan Engram again this week after suffering a hamstring injury during pregame warmups last Sunday. His absence is why Kirk will be the X-factor for the Jaguars’ passing offense, paired with the Bills’ top linebacker and nickel cornerback out.
Pederson cannot afford his team to fall to a 0-3 record. His defense is capable of helping win games, but it is Jacksonville’s offense, Pederson’s bread and butter, costing the Jaguars the most.
That has to change on Monday night.