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The Philadelphia Phillies (90-59) and the Milwaukee Brewers (86-63) open a 3-game series on Monday. First pitch from American Family Field is set for 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Phillies vs. Brewers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Phillies lead 3-0
The Phillies picked up 2 wins in 3 games at home over the weekend against the New York Mets, and Philadelphia has won 5 of the past 6 games, while cashing the Over at a 6-3 clip in the past 9 outings. Philadelphia is 6-2 in the past 8 road games, too, while the Over is 7-2 in the last 9 outings on the road.
The Brewers lost an 11-10 heartbreaker on Sunday night in extra innings at the Arizona Diamondbacks. Despite the loss, Milwaukee has won 3 of the past 4 games while the Under has a 7-3 advantage in the previous 10 contests.
These teams met in Philadelphia June 3-5, with the Phillies sweeping a low-scoring series 3-0. The Phillies averaged just 2.3 RPG in the series sweep, while allowing a total of just 2 runs for the entire set.
Phillies at Brewers projected starters
LHP Ranger Suarez vs. RHP Aaron Civale
Suarez (12-6, 3.05 ERA) makes his 25th start. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 138 2/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 12 H, 2 BB, 2 K in 9-4 home victory vs. Tampa Bay Rays Tuesday
- 2024 road splits: 7-4, 2.60 ERA, 72 2/3 IP, 21 ER, 5 HR, 1.00 WHIP, .213 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 16 BB, 72 K in 12 starts
- Last 7 games: 2-4, 5.30 ERA, 35 2/3 IP, 21 ER, 12 BB, 35 K, 1.54 WHIP
- Career vs. Brewers: 0-0, 2.87 ERA, 15 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 15 H, 5 BB, 14 K in 3 starts
Civale (6-8, 4.57 ERA) makes his 29th start. He has a 1.32 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 145 2/3 IP with Rays and Brewers.
- Last start: Win, 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 2 K in 3-2 road victory vs. San Francisco Giants last Tuesday
- 2024 home splits: 4-5, 3.30 ERA, 84 2/3 IP, 31 ER, 13 HR, 1.13 WHIP, .237 OBA, 20 BB, 84 K in 15 starts
- Last 7 games: 4-1, 3.58 ERA, 37 2/3 IP, 15 ER, 11 BB, 31 K, 1.12 WHIP
- Has never faced Phillies
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Phillies at Brewers odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 6:44 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Phillies -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Brewers -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+150) | Brewers +1.5 (-185)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Phillies at Brewers picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 4, Brewers 3
Moneyline
The PHILLIES (-115) are worth playing lightly on the road in this series opener. Philadelphia swept a low-scoring series in the 1st series back in May, and it is playing arguably better lately.
The Brewers (-105) are just 19-23 in 42 tries against left-handed starting pitchers, too, which is another reason to side with the visitors.
Run line/Against the spread
The Brewers +1.5 (-185) will cost you nearly 2 times your potential return, if you require a little bit of insurance, and you just can’t bring yourself to play the home side straight up.
That’s not a recommended play, however, even as part of a multi-leg parlay. If you like Milwaukee, just play it straight up.
PASS.
Over/Under
UNDER 8 (-105) is worth a look in this series opener.
In the 1st series back in June in Philadelphia, the teams combined for just 9 total runs in the 3-game set. The Under is 4-0 in the past 4 meetings, and 7-2 across the previous 9 battles in this series.
The Under has cashed in the past 4 games at home for the Brewers, too. Go low, and feel confidently in doing so.
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