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The Atlanta Braves (74-62) and Philadelphia Phillies (80-56) close out a 4-game series on Sunday Night Baseball at Citizens Bank Park at 7:10 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Braves vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Braves lead 7-5
The teams have traded L’s in the first 3 games, with the Braves falling victim to a 3-0 shutout Saturday. The Braves scattered 6 hits but couldn’t crack RHP Zack Wheeler, who went 7 shutout innings with 7 K’s. The Braves remain 2 games up on the New York Mets for the final Wild Card spot.
The Phils are still 6 games up on the Braves as they’re 6-4 over the last 10. SS Trea Turner hit his 15th homer of the season to help the cause Sunday.
Braves at Phillies projected starters
RHP Spencer Schwellenbach vs. RHP Aaron Nola
Schwellenbach (5-6, 3.72 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.07 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 in 87 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 8 K in 8-6 victory in 10 innings Tuesday at Minnesota Twins
- Two career starts this year vs. Phillies: 2-0, 2.13 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 15 K in 12 2/3 IP
Nola (12-6, 3.30 ERA) makes his 28th start. He has a 1.16 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 166 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 5-0 home victory Tuesday against Houston Astros
- Last 3 starts: 1-0, 0.95 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 15 K in 19 IP
- Last 5 regular season starts vs. Atlanta: 1-1, 4.23 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 29 K in 27 2/3 IP
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Braves at Phillies odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:10 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Braves +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Phillies -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves +1.5 (-185) | Phillies -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Braves at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 4, Braves 3
Moneyline
This is an interesting one because Schwellenbach, while a much lesser name, has contained the Phils twice — and as recently as 2 starts ago. Meanwhile, Nola has a 6.32 ERA in 3 GS vs. Atlanta this year.
I’m siding with Nola and the Phils at home, though, where he is 6-3 with a 2.87 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 8.6 K/9. He has also been good against what is left of the Braves’ lineup.
Take the PHILLIES -145.
Run line/Against the spread
In a scope that Molly Hatchet would approve of, Schwellenbach has been “Flirtin’ With Disaster” as he has allowed 2+ walks in 3 of his last 4 starts. Against a Phils team seeing him for the 3rd time, I’ll take SPENCER SCHWELLENBACH OVER 1.5 WALKS (-120).
Over/Under
It’s slated to be 80 degrees with a 7-mph wind blowing out to right-center. These teams have cashed 4 Overs in the last 10 meetings, and the Under has hit in 6 of the last 8. Even with the wind blowing out, I think this is a competitive, low-scoring game.
LEAN UNDER 8 (+100).
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