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The Miami Marlins (37-66) and Milwaukee Brewers (59-43) open a 3-game set at American Family Field Friday. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Brewers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Marlins lead 2-1
The Marlins failed to sweep the Baltimore Orioles in a 3-game set Tuesday through Thursday. They wrapped up the series with a 7-6 loss in 10 innings as +174 home underdogs with the Over (8) easily hitting.
The Brewers won 2 of 3 at the Chicago Cubs, winning the series finale 3-2 as +128 underdogs Wednesday as the Under (7) cashed. Milwaukee has won 5 of 6, but All-Star OF Christian Yelich (back tightness) was forced to leave in Tuesday’s 1-0 win and is not expected to return until later this season.
Marlins at Brewers projected starters
LHP Trevor Rogers vs. RHP Freddy Peralta
Rogers (1-9, 4.59 ERA) makes his 21st start. He has a 1.55 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 in 100 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 1 ER (2 R), 5 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 4-2 home win over New York Mets Sunday
- 2024 road stats: 1-4, 4.37 ERA (47 1/3 IP, 23 ER), 1.46 WHIP, 6.3 K/9 in 9 starts
- 2024 vs. Brewers: 0-0, 9.82 ERA (3 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 6 H, 4 BB, 4 K in 1 start, a 7-5 home loss May 21
- Career vs. Brewers: 3-0, 2.70 ERA (20 IP, 6 ER), 1.35 WHIP, 11.3 K/9 in 4 starts
Peralta (6-5, 3.88 ERA) makes his 21st start. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 11.4 K/9 in 109 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 0 R, 2 H, 2 BB, 8 K in 8-4 win in 12 innings at Minnesota Twins Saturday
- 2024 home stats: 3-2, 4.50 ERA (50 IP, 25 ER), 1.12 WHIP, 11.9 K/9 in 9 starts
- 2024 vs. Marlins: 0-1, 1.29 ERA (7 IP, 1 ER), 4 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 1 start, a 1-0 road loss May 22
- Career vs. Marlins: 3-3, 4.19 ERA (34 1/3 IP, 16 ER), 1.05 WHIP, 11.8 K/9 in 9 appearances (6 starts)
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Marlins at Brewers odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:10 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Marlins +185 (bet $100 to win $185) | Brewers -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-105) | Brewers -1.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Marlins at Brewers picks and predictions
Prediction
Marlins 4, Brewers 3
Moneyline
The MARLINS (+185) are worth a small wager as such big underdogs at the Brewers, who will be without 1 of their best hitters in Yelich. Milwaukee has scored a total of just 5 runs over its last 3 games and losing anyone at the top of the order is a huge blow to its offense.
The Marlins’ bats have come alive, scoring 4 or more runs in 5 straight games. While it’s not likely that this spark continues much longer, it’s hard to bet against them right now, especially since Rogers is 3-0 with a 2.70 ERA in 4 career starts against Milwaukee.
BET MARLINS (+185).
Run line/Against the spread
Miami +1.5 (-105) is a decent play to cover at Milwaukee, but the plus odds on the ML is the preferred play with how erratic the Marlins have been this season.
PASS. Bet the ML and/or total instead.
Over/Under
The Under has hit in 3 straight for the Brewers, with Milwaukee averaging just 1.67 runs per game over that span. Miami has scored exactly 6 runs in 3 straight games (3-0 O/U), but that type of production isn’t likely to continue.
BET UNDER 8 (-115).
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