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The Arizona Diamondbacks (44-45) and San Diego Padres (49-44) close out a 3-game series Sunday. First pitch from Petco Park is at 4:10 p.m. ET (Roku). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Padres lead 5-4
The Diamondbacks, after losing Friday’s opener on a walk-off homer, scored 3 runs in the 10th inning to win 7-5 Saturday and even the series. They are 5-2 in their last 7 games.
Saturday’s loss for the Padres was just their 4th in their last 16 games overall and their 2nd in their last 11 at home.
Diamondbacks at Padres projected starters
RHP Ryne Nelson vs. RHP Dylan Cease
Nelson (5-6, 5.42 ERA) makes his 14th start and 16th appearance. He has a 1.56 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 6.0 K/9 in 73 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 6-5 road loss to Los Angeles Dodgers Tuesday
- 2024 vs. Padres: 1-1, 9.72 ERA (8 1/3 IP, 9 ER), 2.28 WHIP, 4.3 K/9 in 2 starts
- Career vs. Padres: 2-3, 6.95 ERA (33 2/3 IP, 26 ER), 1.57 WHIP, 6.1 K/9 in 7 starts
Cease (7-7, 4.24 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.12 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 11.5 K/9 in 102 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 3 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 7-0 road loss to Texas Rangers Tuesday
- Has allowed 4+ runs 6 times this season, 3 times in his last 4 outings
- 2024 vs. Diamondbacks: 1-0, 1.35 ERA (6 2/3 IP, 1 ER), 3 H, 0 BB, 8 K in 1 start, a 7-1 road win May 3
- Career vs. Diamondbacks: 1-0, 1.84 ERA (14 2/3 IP, 3 ER), 0.41 WHIP, 9.8 K/9 in 2 starts
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Diamondbacks at Padres odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:36 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Diamondbacks +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Padres -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Diamondbacks +1.5 (-150) | Padres -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Diamondbacks at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 8, Diamondbacks 6
Moneyline
The Diamondbacks are 2 walk-off hits from a 7-game winning streak. They have scored 7 runs or more in 4 straight games.
But Nelson has struggled against the Padres (-160) this season and Cease’s 1 start against Arizona was a good one.
Arizona is 22-24 on the road this season and 17-25 against teams with winning records, so expect the Padres to bounce back and win the finale and the series, but there are plus odds on the run line to bet.
PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
All 5 of the Padres’ wins over the Diamondbacks have been by 2 or more runs. Nine of their last 10 wins have been by 2 or more runs. Nine of their 10 wins with Cease starting have been by at least 2 runs.
Twelve of Arizona’s last 13 losses have been by multiple runs.
BET PADRES -1.5 (+125).
Over/Under
Eight of the 9 games this season between Arizona and San Diego have had more than 8 total runs.
Three of Cease’s last 4 starts have had more than 8 total runs.
The Diamondbacks’ last 5 games, and 9 of their last 11, have had more than 8 total runs.
BET OVER 8 (-120).
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