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The New York Mets (20-23) and Miami Marlins (13-32) meet Friday as they swing into a 3-game NL East Series. First pitch from loanDepot park is slated for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: 1st meeting; the Mets took the 2023 series 9-4
New York is coming of a 6-5 extra-innings win over the Philadelphia Phillies Thursday. The Mets let a 4-3 lead slip away with a Philly marker in the bottom of the 9th, but then won the contest with a 2-for-1 exchange in the 11th. The victory snapped a 3-game losing streak.
The Marlins are back at home after a 3-game series at the Detroit Tigers. Miami took the last 2 games of that series, both in shutouts. Those shutouts came on the heels of the Fish clocking a Boeing 7.25 ERA over their previous 9 games.
Mets at Marlins projected starters
RHP Christian Scott vs. LHP Jesus Luzardo
Scott (0-1, 2.84 ERA) is making his 3rd start. He has a 1.11 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 in 12 2/3 IP.
- Last outing: Loss, 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 8 K in 4-1 loss vs. Atlanta Braves Saturday
- The 24-rookie made his Major League debut May 4; called up after logging a 5-start 3.20 ERA, 0.70 WHIP at Triple-A
- Has never faced the Marlins
Luzardo (0-3, 5.97 ERA) is lined up for his 7th start. He has a 1.33 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 in 31 2/3 IP.
- Last outing: Loss, 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 8 K in 8-3 loss vs. Philadelphia Phillies Saturday
- Career vs. Mets: 2-2, 3.55 ERA (33 IP, 13 ER), 22 H, 17 BB, 37 K in 6 starts
- Returned from the Injured List (elbow) in his Saturday start against Philadelphia
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Mets at Marlins odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 7:13 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Mets -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Marlins +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets -1.5 (+140) | Marlins +1.5 (-165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Mets at Marlins picks and predictions
Prediction
Mets 4, Marlins 3
Moneyline
In their last 20 games against the Marlins, the Mets have gone 14-6. And New York is 3-1 in their last 4 games at Miami.
Including his 2 Major League starts, Scott has appeared in just 17 games above A-ball, so it would figure he’s due for some growing pains along the way. But Scott was sharp in his last — against a juggernaut Atlanta Braves offense — and is deserving of some respect for his command and control.
In last year’s season series, the Mets were a plus-26 in run differential. They have the better bullpen and figure to be a bit of an undervalued club at this point in mid-May.
Luzardo could find some fatigue troubles with this 2nd start back off the IL.
BACK NEW YORK (-120).
Run line/Against the spread
The Under is the lean for this game, so trying to get the Mets by with a cushion does not fit here. PASS.
Over/Under
Five of the last 6 series meetings in Miami have landed on the Under.
Luzardo’s season ERA has been hurt by an unfortunate .444 batting average on balls in play. Miami’s park profiles as a pitcher’s yard, and these are a pair of 2nd-division offenses.
TAKE THE UNDER 7.5 (-110).
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