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The Philadelphia Phillies (15-10) and Cincinnati Reds (14-10) meet at Great American Ball Park for the Thursday finale of a 4-game series. First pitch is set for 1:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Reds odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Reds lead 4-2
Philadelphia pitching allowed just 14 runs over a 7-game win streak until the 2nd game of this series. The Phillies have yielded more than that over the last 2 days, losing 8-1 Tuesday and 7-4 on Wednesday.
The Reds mustered just 2 hits Monday, but on Tuesday they had 2 HRs among 9 hits in a bounce-back win. In Wednesday’s conquest, Cincinnati registered 3 extra-base hits, 5 stolen bases, and a 3-of-10 mark with runners in scoring position.
This is the final regular-season meeting between the teams.
Phillies at Reds projected starters
RHP Zack Wheeler vs. RHP Nick Martinez
Wheeler (1-3, 2.30 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 0.89 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 10.9 K/9 in 31 1/3 IP.
- Last outing: Win, 7.1 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 2 BB, 8 K in 9-4 win vs. Chicago White Sox Saturday
- Career vs. Reds: 1-2, 2.98 ERA (42.1 IP, 14 ER), 36 H, 14 BB, 44 K in 7 starts
Martinez (0-0, 4.76 ERA) is tabbed for his 3rd start. He has a 1.24 WHIP, 1.1 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 in 17 IP across 4 games.
- Last outing: 3 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 2 K in 7-5 win vs. Los Angeles Angels Saturday (pitched in relief)
- Career vs. Phillies: 0-0, 0.87 ERA (10 1/3 IP, 1 ER), 4 H, 2 BB, 13 K in 5 games; 1st start vs. Phillies
- Eighty-nine of 202 career appearances have been as a starter (owns a 3.16 ERA as a reliever and a 4.74 mark as a starter)
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Phillies at Reds odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:36 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Phillies -160 (bet $160 to win $100) | Reds +135 (bet $100 to win $135)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+100) | Reds +1.5 (-120)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Phillies at Reds picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 5, Reds 4
Moneyline
Wheeler has been quite good, missing bats and inducing manageable contact. He has held current Reds batters to an aggregate .676 OPS. The Philadelphia righty is backed by the more rested bullpen.
Martinez-as-a-starter brings too many question marks. In that role, he’s yielded an .801 OPS over his career. And that’s with the benefit of a .284 batting average on balls in play.
Look for a bounce-back for a Philly squad which is 5-4 on the road. BACK THE PHILLIES (-160).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS: Better leverage can be found on the ML.
Over/Under
Looking at the runs scored, allowed and expected on both ends for both nines, we should expect some upward pressure to overall scoring. But the pitching here, especially on the Philadelphia side, tamps down any enthusiasm for a bet-able lean.
TAB THE OVER 8 (-110) with just a sliver of a sliver of a lean.
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