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The Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies head to the City of Brotherly Love to untangle their NL Division Series. First pitch in Wednesday’s Game 3 at Citizens Bank Park is slated for 5:07 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Braves vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Series: Tied 1-1
Atlanta heads to Philly after a brilliant comeback — complete with a wild, game-ending double-play — in Monday’s Game 2. Home runs by C Travis d’Arnaud and 3B Austin Riley helped the Braves battle back from a 4-0 deficit in an eventual 5-4 triumph.
Monday’s setback snapped a 4-game Philadelphia winning streak. Dating back to the regular season, the Phillies have lost 11 games since Sept. 8 and 7 of those have been by 1-run margins.
Braves at Phillies projected starters
RHP Bryce Elder vs. RHP Aaron Nola
Elder went 12-4 with a 3.81 ERA across 31 regular-season starts. He logged a 1.28 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 in 174 2/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 3 2/3 IP, 7 H, 5 R, 4 BB, 2 K in 7-6 win vs. Chicago Cubs Sept. 26
- 2023 regular-season road stats: 5-3, 4.05 ERA in 80 IP across 14 starts
- Career starts vs. Phillies: 0-0, 3.38 ERA in 10 2/3 IP (2 starts in 2023)
- Making his 1st postseason start
Nola went 12-9 with a 4.46 ERA across 32 regular-season starts. He logged a 1.15 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 193 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 K in 7-1 win vs. Miami Marlins Wednesday (NLWCS Game 2)
- 2023 regular-season home stats: 6-3, 3.29 ERA in 87 2/3 IP across 14 starts
- Last 5 starts vs. Phillies: 2-0, 2.10 ERA in 30 IP
- Postseason: 3-2, 3.86 ERA in 32 2/3 IP (2022-23)
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Braves at Phillies odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines updated at 1:53 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Braves +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Phillies -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Braves +1.5 (-185) | Phillies -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Braves at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 5, Braves 4
Moneyline
The Phillies are a sliver of a lean in a vacuum, but the starting pitching is the big tilt for this match-up in Game 3. Elder is making his playoff debut, and his surface numbers in the regular season were suspect due to a .275 batting average on balls in play and a .255 BABIP with runners in scoring position.
The Braves hurler is also making this start on extended rest. During the regular season, he clocked a 3.39 ERA on 4-day rest. a 3.42 ERA on 5-day rest and a 5.83 ERA when pitching on 6-plus days’ rest.
Nola was a bit unlucky in the regular season with 15.6% of his fly balls leaving the yard. A cooled-off Philadelphia evening would not hurt his prospects for this one, but expect better control of the long ball for a pitcher who has been less frequently barreled up over the last month or so. Nola was also undone by a .340 BABIP with runners in scoring position in the regular season.
Nola was solid last week against Miami. He gives the Phils value at -130 or better.
Grab the FanDuel Sportsbook on this one: TAKE THE PHILLIES (-120).
Run line/Against the spread
The Phillies play a lot of 1-run games. AVOID the cushion proposition here.
Over/Under
No leverage on either side here: PASS.
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