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The Pittsburgh Pirates (71-81) and Chicago Cubs (79-73) play the finale of a 3-game set at Wrigley Field Thursday. First pitch is at 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Pirates vs. Cubs odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Cubs lead 10-2
The first 2 games of the series have been slugfests with the Cubs winning 14-1 Tuesday and Pittsburgh winning 13-7 Wednesday. The Pirates are on the verge of elimination. 8 games out of an NL Wild Card spot with 10 to go, but they have been playing well of late. They’re 12-8 and 17-13 over the last 20 and 30 games, respectively.
The Cubs have taken a deep dive of late with just 3 wins in their last 10 games. They’re clinging to the final NL Wild Card spot with 3 teams within 3 games of them. They are 42-35 at home and 29-19 within the division this year.
Pirates at Cubs projected starters
RHP Johan Oviedo vs. RHP Kyle Hendricks
Oviedo (8-14, 4.27 ERA) makes his 31st start. He has a 1.36 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 through 166 2/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 5 BB, 7 K Friday against New York Yankees
- Last 5 starts vs. Cubs: 1-3, 3.29 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 28 K in 27 1/3 IP
Hendricks (6-7, 3.77 ERA) makes his 23rd start. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 6.1 K/9 through 126 2/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 3 K Saturday against Arizona Diamondbacks
- Last 5 starts vs, Pirates: 2-2, 3.58 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 17 K in 27 2/3 IP
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Pirates at Cubs odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 8:17 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Pirates +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Cubs -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates +1.5 (-145) | Cubs -1.5 (+120)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Pirates at Cubs picks and predictions
Prediction
Pirates 6, Cubs 4
Moneyline
Hendricks has been a lot worse at home this season as his stuff is diminishing as he ages. He’s 3-4 with a 4.41 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 12 home starts and 3-3 with a 3.08 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 10 road starts. I’m also a big fan of Oviedo. He has electric stuff if he can just keep the walks to a minimum, and he has walked just 1 in his last 3 starts against the Cubs.
I’ll take the PIRATES (+135).
Run line/Against the spread
I don’t like the run line in any scenario here as 8 of the last 10 meetings have been decided by 2 or more runs. If you like the Pirates to cover, just stick with the value on the ML.
PASS.
Over/Under
It’s a little surprising to see this line under 9 after these teams have combined for 35 runs scored in the first 2 games. These teams have actually slaughtered this number in 4 straight meetings. Their numbers trend toward the Under over the last 10, but Oviedo has pitched to 3 straight Overs and Hendricks has cashed the over in 2 of his last 3 turns.
I’ll take the OVER 8.5 (-110).
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