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The Pittsburgh Pirates (70-81) and Chicago Cubs (79-72) play the 2nd game of a 3-game set Wednesday at Wrigley Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Pirates vs. Cubs odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Cubs lead 10-1
The Pirates lost 14-1 as +144 underdogs as the Over (9) cashed in the series opener Tuesday. Pittsburgh has lost 3 of its last 4 games.
Rookie DH Alexander Canario hit a grand slam for his 1st HR in the majors as part of an 8-run 8th inning for Chicago. The Cubs ended a 5-game losing skid and have a half-game lead over the Miami Marlins for the final NL Wild Card spot.
Pirates at Cubs projected starters
RHP Mitch Keller vs. LHP Justin Steele
Keller (12-9, 4.04 ERA) makes his 31st start. He has a 1.24 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 in 182 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 8 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 2-0 home victory vs. Washington Nationals Thursday
- 2023 road stats: 5-6, 5.15 ERA (92 2/3 IP, 53 ER) in 16 starts
- 2023 vs. Cubs: Win, 8 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 1 start, a 2-1 home victory Aug. 25
- Career vs. Cubs: 3-4, 4.24 ERA (46 2/3 IP, 22 ER) in 9 starts and 1 relief appearance
Steele (16-4, 2.73 ERA) makes his 29th start. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 165 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 6 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 6-4 loss at Arizona Diamondbacks Friday
- 2023 home stats: 12-2, 2.18 ERA (99 IP, 24 ER) in 17 starts
- 2023 vs. Pirates: No-decision, 6 IP, 3 R (2 ER), 6 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 1 start, a 5-4 road win in 10 innings Aug. 24
- Career vs. Pirates: 1-1, 3.80 ERA (23 2/3 IP, 10 ER) in 4 starts and 1 relief appearance
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Pirates at Cubs odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:19 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Pirates +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Cubs -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates +1.5 (-140) | Cubs -1.5 (+115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Pirates at Cubs picks and predictions
Prediction
Cubs 7, Pirates 2
Moneyline
The Cubs (-175) should improve to 11-1 vs. the Pirates this season, but there’s no need to pay the higher price on the moneyline when Chicago should win by multiple runs.
PASS. Bet the run line and/or the total instead.
Run line/Against the spread
The Cubs are a respectable 25-26 on the run line this season as home favorites, usually at plus odds.
Steele should bounce back after his 2nd-worst start of the season last time out. He has not allowed a single run in his 2 outings this year when coming off a start with 5 or more ER.
Add in Chicago’s No. 4-ranked home offense, and this should create the perfect storm for the Pirates to lose by multiple runs.
BET CUBS -1.5 (+115).
Over/Under
The Over is 25-19-3 (56.8%) this season when the Cubs play in-division and 26-23-2 (53.1%) when they’re home favorites.
The Over has also hit in 5 of the last 6 meetings between these teams and should cash Wednesday as Chicago continues to bully Pittsburgh this season.
BET OVER 7.5 (-115).
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