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The New York Mets (69-80) and the Miami Marlins (78-72) open a 3-game series at loanDepot park Monday. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Mets lead 5-2
The Mets dropped 2 of 3 games against the Cincinnati Reds at Citi Field over the weekend, salvaging the series finale on Sunday in an 8-4 score as the Over (9) cashed. New York has won 5 of the past 8 games overall, with the Over going 4-1-1 in the past 6 contests.
The Marlins swept the AL East champion Atlanta Braves over the weekend, pulling into a tie for the final NL Wild Card spot with the Chicago Cubs with 12 regular-season games remaining. Miami’s offense came alive in the 3-game sweep of Atlanta, averaging 12.0 runs per game.
Mets at Marlins projected starters
RHP Jose Butto vs. RHP Edward Cabrera
Butto (1-2, 3.46 ERA) makes his 5th start and 7th overall appearance. He has a 1.46 WHIP, 6.2 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 in 26 innings.
- Last start: Win, 5 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 3 BB, 7 K in 7-4 home win vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks Tuesday
- 2023 home splits: 1-2, 4.38 ERA (12 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 1 HR, .178 opponent batting average (OBA) in 2 starts and 1 relief appearance
Cabrera (6-7, 4.52 ERA) makes his 18th start and 20th overall appearance. He has a 1.44 WHIP, 6.3 BB/9 and 11.1 K/9 in 85 2/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 1 H, 6 BB, 5 K in 3-1 road loss vs. the Milwaukee Brewers Tuesday
- 2023 home splits: 6-0, 2.61 ERA (38 IP, 11 ER), 3 HR, .191 OBA in 7 starts and 1 relief appearance
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Mets at Marlins odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:05 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Mets +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Marlins -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets +1.5 (-155) | Marlins -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Mets at Marlins picks and predictions
Prediction
Marlins 6, Mets 3
Moneyline
The MARLINS (-155) are moderate favorites, but they keep steaming along as they try to keep their Wild Card hopes on track.
The difference here is pitching, as Cabrera is unbeaten in 6 decisions at home. While he has some extremely odd splits against the Mets this season, allowing just 4 ER, 2 H and 13 BB in 6 2/3 IP across 2 starts, he is at home, and he doesn’t miss at loanDepot park.
Run line/Against the spread
The MARLINS -1.5 (+125) are worth a look on the run line.
Miami hasn’t been favored in the past 13 games. The last time it was favored, Miami won 6-4 on Sept. 3 in Washington. The Marlins are 6-3 in the past 9 games as favorites and have cashed the run line in 4 in a row when favored.
Over/Under
The OVER 8.5 (-110) is the lean, but go with a half-unit play at best.
Miami scored 9 or more runs in the 3-game sweep of the Braves over the weekend, and the total has gone high in 6 in a row at home. For New York, the Over is 4-1-1 in the past 6 games overall, too.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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