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The Milwaukee Brewers (81-64) welcome the Miami Marlins (75-71) to American Family Field Thursday for the finale of a 4-game series. First pitch is set for 2:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Brewers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Brewers lead 2-1
The Brewers lost 2-0 Wednesday as -124 favorites in the 3rd game of the series. Milwaukee is 42-29 at home this season, is 4-2 over its last 6 games and sits atop the NL Central with a 4-game lead over the Chicago Cubs.
The Marlins are 21 games behind the Atlanta Braves in the NL East but just a half-game back of the final NL Wild Card. Miami is 6-4 over its last 10 games and is 35-39 on the road.
Marlins at Brewers projected starters
RHP Eury Perez vs. RHP Adrian Houser
Perez (5-4, 2.90 ERA) makes his 18th start. He has a 1.10 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 through 83 2/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 4 K in 3-2 road win vs. Philadelphia Phillies Friday
- 2023 road stats: 2-3, 4.17 ERA in 41 IP over 9 starts
Houser (5-4, 4.58 ERA) makes his 18th start and 20th appearance. He has a 1.48 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 through 90 1/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 2 IP, 4 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 2 K in 10-6 home win vs. San Diego Padres on Aug. 27
- 2023 home stats: 2-1, 4.79 ERA in 41 1/3 IP over 8 starts and 1 relief appearance
Marlins at Brewers odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:50 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Marlins -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Brewers -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins -1.5 (+150) | Brewers +1.5 (-185)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Marlins at Brewers picks and predictions
Prediction
Brewers 4, Marlins 3
Moneyline
BET BREWERS (-105).
The Brewers have won 2 of 3 in this series and have allowed just 3 runs through those 3 games. Milwaukee should bounce back after being held scoreless Wednesday.
Perez has the advantage on the mound, but Houser has allowed more than 3 earned runs in his 3 starts since Aug. 15.
Milwaukee has the 3rd-best home record in the NL, while the Marlins have struggled on the road. Miami is just 3-4 over its last 7 games, so it hasn’t necessarily been playing well lately.
Back the BREWERS (-105).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
There’s no value here — the Brewers are too pricey as home underdogs and the Marlins haven’t been good enough on the road to take in this situation.
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Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 8 (+100).
The Marlins are 67-75-4 O/U on the season, and they have gone Under in 4 of their last 6 games. The total is 1-2 O/U so far this series.
The only Over came when the Brewers plated 12 runs Monday in the series opener, but Milwaukee has only scored 3 runs over the last 2 games. Milwaukee has gone Under in 3 of its last 4 games and is 66-74-5 O/U this season.
Back UNDER 8 (+100).
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