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The New York Yankees (73-72) and Boston Red Sox (73-72) are slated to tangle Wednesday in the 3rd game of a 4-game set. First pitch from Fenway Park at 7:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Yankees vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Red Sox lead 8-3
New York swept the BoSox in a low-scoring Tuesday twin bill, prevailing by scores of 3-2 and 4-1 in the day-night affair at Fenway Park. The Tuesday action stopped the bleeding of a 7-game losing skid vs. Boston.
The Red Sox are just 1-6 over their last 7 games and 4-11 across their last 15. At home, the Crimson Hose are 1-8 with a 6.58 ERA over their last 9 games.
Yankees at Red Sox projected starters
RHP Clarke Schmidt vs. RHP Tanner Houck
Schmidt (9-8, 4.54 ERA) makes his 29th start and 30th appearance. He has a 1.32 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 through 140 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 6 1/3 IP, 5 H, 3R, 0 BB, 6 K in 4-3 home win vs. Detroit Tigers last Wednesday
- 2023 road stats: 5-3, 5.29 ERA in 63 IP across 13 starts
- 3 career starts vs. Red Sox: 0-0, 2.87 ERA in 15 2/3 IP
Houck (4-9, 5.28 ERA) makes his 18th start. He has a 1.35 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 through 87 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 5 1/3 IP, 8 H, 5 R, 2 BB, 5 K in 11-2 home loss vs. Baltimore Orioles Friday
- 2023 home stats: 2-4, 5.76 ERA in 45 1/3 IP across 9 starts
- Last 5 starts vs. Yankees: 0-1, 3.27 ERA in 22 IP across 3 starts (2021-23)
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Yankees at Red Sox odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:22 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Yankees +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Red Sox -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees +1.5 (-165) | Red Sox -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Yankees at Red Sox picks and predictions
Prediction
Red Sox 5, Yankees 4
Moneyline
This match-up has some slight pull toward the Yankees on the overall team aspect of results vs. expected. Peg the pitching as mostly a wash.
PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
The Yanks have the momentum of the series, and Boston is in the throes of a slump. There is plenty of daylight in Schmidt’s actual-vs.-expected results over the last 5 weeks or so. He has been especially undone by some unkind rates around the margins and a 5.00 ERA since Aug. 1 is not justified.
Schmidt may not give New York enough length on a day when some newcomers and/or lesser bullpen arms are called on for mid-leverage innings, but YANKEES +1.5 (-165) is still worthy of some action.
Over/Under
The Yankees have hit the Under in 25 of their last 44 road games (+6.35 units, 13% ROI).
High-yield Fenway is experiencing an early-fall cool-off in temperature, and it affected the offenses Tuesday. The pitching in Tuesday’s nightcap made for an Over lean, but Wednesday’s starting pitchers change that equation.
Schmidt’s road line is sullied by a .346 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and Houck’s home numbers have been hurt by a .318 BABIP. Both have decent histories against the lineups they face on Wednesday.
Both clubs are beat up and well back in the AL East standings. Figure on a few extra plate appearances going to youngsters being tested at the Major League level.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the best price to leverage here: BACK THE UNDER 9.5 (-106).
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