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The Atlanta Braves (95-50) and Philadelphia Phillies (79-66) play the finale of a 3-game set at Citizens Bank Park Wednesday. First pitch is at 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Braves vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Braves lead 6-3
The Braves evened this 3-game set with a 7-6 victory in extra innings Tuesday night. Atlanta was up 6-1 but allowed 5 runs in the 7th-9th innings to blow the lead before OF Eddie Rosario singled home the eventual winning run in the top of the 10th. Atlanta is just 5-5 over its last 10 games as it continues to cruise to October, but it’s still 21-9 over the last 30.
Philadelphia took the series opener 7-5 Monday and nearly stole Tuesday’s game. The Phils are 11-9 over their last 20 games and hold the top NL Wild Card spot. They’ve had trouble within the division at 18-23 on the season but are 43-30 at home.
Braves at Phillies projected starters
RHP Spencer Strider vs. LHP Cristopher Sanchez
Strider (16-5, 3.83 ERA) makes his 29th start. He has a 1.09 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 13.9 K/9 through 162 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 2 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 5 K last Wednesday against St. Louis Cardinals
- Last 5 regular season starts vs. Phillies: 5-0, 1.76 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 47 K in 30 2/3 IP
Sanchez (2-3, 3.26 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.04 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 through 80 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 4 K Friday against Miami Marlins
- Home/road splits: Home: 2-3, 3.97 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 8.8 K/9 in 11 starts; Away: 0-0, 1.29 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, 6.4 K/9 in 4 starts
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Braves at Phillies odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:30 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Braves -185 (bet $185 to win $100) | Phillies +150 (bet $100 to win $150)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (-115) | Phillies +1.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Braves at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Braves 4, Phillies 3
Moneyline
This is a big start for Strider, who has allowed at least 4 ER in 3 of his last 6 outings. He is well past his career high in innings and is showing signs of fatigue and a loss of command. I’m still going to side with the Braves though, because the Phillies have not hit him historically. He has allowed just 17 hits with a 1.76 ERA in 30 2/3 IP over his last 5 starts against them. We’re not paying -185, though.
Take the BRAVES ML + SPENCER STRIDER 6 K’s (-150) at a reduced rate instead.
Run line/Against the spread
I don’t like taking RL favorites at less-than-even-money odds. The Phils have played the Braves tough, too. I could make a case to take Philadelphia here, but I’m just going to stick with the aforementioned ML and K parlay.
PASS.
Over/Under
The Braves are 8-2 O/U over the last 10, and Philadelphia is 5-5. The Over is 6-3-1 in the last 10 meetings. Strider has pitched in 2 straight Overs, and he allowed 10 ER in 8 2/3 IP. There’s some concern there, but he has been so lights-out against the Phils, I feel a low-scoring game here.
LEAN UNDER 8.5 (+100).
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