The San Diego Padres (37-43) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (37-42) wrap up a 3-game series Thursday at PNC Park. First pitch is scheduled for 12:35 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Padres vs. Pirates odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Pirates lead 2-0 after a 7-1 victory on Wednesday
The Padres are in the midst of a 4-game skid, and are just 2-7 in their past 9 games overall to slip to 6 games under .500. San Diego is also just 1-6 across its previous 7 games on the road and trails the NL West-leading Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 1/2 games.
The Pirates had lost 10 in a row from June 13-22 and were just 1-12 in the 13 games before this series. However, Pittsburgh has outscored San Diego by a 16-5 count, and the 2-game run total is the most for the Bucs against the same opponent since also scoring 16 runs in consecutive games from May 19-20 against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
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Padres at Pirates projected starters
RHP Joe Musgrove vs. RHP Luis Ortiz
Musgrove (6-2, 3.88 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.26 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 across 60 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 7 K in a 13-3 home win vs. the Washington Nationals Friday
- 2023 road splits: 3-1, 3.13 ERA (23 IP, 8 ER) with a .270 opponent batting average (OBA) in 4 starts
Ortiz (2-3, 3.74 ERA) makes his 9th start and 10th appearance. He has a 1.62 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 6.1 K/9 in 45 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 8 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 5 K in a 3-1 road win vs. the Miami Marlins Friday
- 2023 home splits: 1-1, 3.20 ERA (19 2/3 IP, 7 ER – 3 HR) with a .303 OBA in 3 starts and 1 relief appearance
Padres at Pirates odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:25 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Padres -200 (bet $200 to win $100) | Pirates +165 (bet $100 to win $165)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres -1.5 (-115) | Pirates +1.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Padres at Pirates picks and predictions
Prediction
Pirates 4, Padres 3
Moneyline
The PIRATES (+165) are a tremendous value at home as the Bucs break out the brooms against the disappointing Padres.
Musgrove has been consistently solid this season, including on the road. However, Ortiz is coming off a career-best outing, going 8 innings in a win on the road in Miami.
The Padres are just 1-5 in the past 6 in Game 3 of a series, while going 0-5 in the past 5 tries against a right-handed starting pitcher. It’s time to stop believing in San Diego and just fade it until it starts showing some consistency.
Run line/Against the spread
The PIRATES +1.5 (-105) are worth a look if you’d like a little bit of insurance and you believe the Padres will have some fortitude and salvage this series for some reason. It will likely be a close battle even if the Padres are able to win, and the Bucs are not priced out of line if you’d like a little insurance considering how well they’ve played in this series.
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Over/Under
The UNDER 8.5 (-105) is the best play in this matinee getaway day game.
The Under is 24-8-1 in the Padres’ last 33 games against a right-handed starting pitcher and is 12-4-1 in their past 17 road games vs. RHP.
The Under is 3-1-1 in the past 5 games overall for the Pirates and is 3-1-2 in the past 6 meetings in this series.
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