The struggling Pittsburgh Pirates (34-39) open a 4-game road series on Thursday against the Miami Marlins (42-33). First pitch from loanDepot Park is 6:40 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Pirates vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Miami won 4 of 7 games in 2022
The Pirates have lost 9 straight games. They were swept in a 3-game series at home by the Chicago Cubs, closing things out Wednesday with an 8-3 loss.
The Marlins lost the final 2 games of their home series against the Toronto Blue Jays, including a 6-3 loss on Wednesday. Before losing 2 in a row, they had a 5-game winning streak. They have won 13 of their last 18 games.
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Pirates at Marlins projected starters
RHP Mitch Keller vs. LHP Braxton Garrett
Keller (8-3, 3.62 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 in 92 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 7 K in 5-0 road loss to Milwaukee Brewers last Saturday
- Is 3-2 with 6.14 ERA over last 5 starts (29 1/3 IP)
Garrett (3-2, 3.88 ERA) makes his 14th start and 15th appearance. He has a 1.22 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 in 69 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 8 K in 5-2 road win over the Washington Nationals last Saturday
- Is 2-0 with 2.73 ERA over last 5 starts (26 1/3 IP)
Pirates at Marlins odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:42 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Pirates +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Marlins -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates +1.5 (-165) | Marlins -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -120 | U: (+100)
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Pirates at Marlins picks and predictions
Prediction
Marlins 6, Pirates 3
Moneyline
The Pirates are struggling. They have lost 9 straight games and 12 of their last 14. They have lost 6 in a row on the road, dropping them to 16-20 away from home.
The Marlins are 13-5 in their last 18 games, allowing 2 or fewer runs in 5 of their last 7 games.
The Marlins on the moneyline isn’t a bad play for the opener, but the way the Pirates have been losing, the run line can win you more money.
PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
Eleven of the Marlins’ last 13 wins have been by at least 2 runs wile 11 of the Pirates’ last 12 losses have been by 2 or more runs.
Pittsburgh is 34-39 ATS overall this season while Miami is 36-39 ATS.
BET MARLINS -1.5 (+140).
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Over/Under
Seven of the Marlins’ last 10 games have had more than 7 total runs. The Pirates have been shut out 3 times in their last 5 games and have only scored 5 runs in those 5 contests, but 6 of their last 9 games have had totals of 8 or more runs.
BET OVER 7 (-120).
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