The Atlanta Braves (46-26) and Philadelphia Phillies (38-34) open up a 3-game set Tuesday at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch is at 6:40 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Braves vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 2-2
The Braves have won 6 in a row to extend their NL East lead to 4 1/2 games over the Miami Marlins. They’re doing it with the bats as they’ve averaged 9.33 runs per game during the stretch. Atlanta is 15-5 over the last 20 games and 12-5 against left-handed starters, which they’ll face Tuesday.
Philadelphia is also red-hot, winners of 6 in a row as well, and 8 of 10. Unfortunately, they haven’t been able to catch up much ground because Atlanta has been so hot. The Phils sit 8 games out in 3rd place. They are a solid 19-11 at home.
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Braves at Phillies projected starters
RHP Spencer Strider vs. LHP Ranger Suarez
Strider (7-2, 4.12 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and a league-leading 14.5 K/9 in 78 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 6 K Wednesday against the Detroit Tigers
- Last 5 starts vs. Phillies: 4-0, 1.82 ERA, 0.61 WHIP, 38 K in 24 2/3 IP
Suarez (1-2, 3.82 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 1.33 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 in 37 2/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 7 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 7 K Wednesday against Arizona Diamondbacks
- Last 5 starts vs. Braves: 1-2, 3.21 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 23 K in 28 IP
Braves at Phillies odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:50 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Braves -155 (bet $155 to win $100) | Phillies +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (+105) | Phillies +1.5 (-130)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Braves at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Braves 7, Phillies 4
Moneyline
The Braves are just 2-5 in their last 7 in Philadelphia, but they are so locked in right now. There is something to be said about their last 3 series coming against lesser teams in Washington, Detroit and Colorado, but with the Braves’ stud on the hill and their success against lefties, we’ll take the BRAVES -145.
Run line/Against the spread
Strider has given up 5 ER in each of his last 2 starts and 4 ER in 3 of 6 starts. The Braves have the edge in the back end with the 9th-ranked 3.59 bullpen ERA while Philadelphia is 20th at 4.17. There has only been 3 one-run games in this matchup over the last 10 games. Atlanta is 19-14 on the RL on the road.
I’ll back the BRAVES -1.5 (+105) for a HALF-UNIT.
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Over/Under
The Braves are averaging north of this total by themselves over the last 6, and the Phils have plated 5 runs or more in 6 of 10. The Over is 7-2-1 in the last 10 between the teams. With Strider allowing at least 2 ER in his last 6 starts and the Braves’ bats doing what they’re doing, the OVER 8.5 (-120) seems like a no-brainer.
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