The Houston Astros (11-10) and Atlanta Braves (14-7) close out their 3-game series at Truist Park Sunday at 1:35 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Houston leads 2-0
The Astros won Friday’s series opener 6-4 and Saturday’s game 6-3. Houston is now 5-1 in its last 6 road games.
The Braves have now lost 3 straight after winning 8 in a row from April 10-18. Clutch hitting has been a difference maker the last 2 days in Atlanta. The Braves have gone 3-of-14 with runners in scoring position while the Astros have gone 6-of-19.
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Astros at Braves projected starters
RHP Cristian Javier vs. LHP Max Fried
Javier (2-0, 3.68 ERA) is tabbed for his 5th start of the season. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 in 22 IP.
- Notched a 2.54 ERA in 148 2/3 IP last season
- Faced Atlanta once last year: 6 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 6 K in 5-4 loss on Aug. 10
- Has been a fly-ball pitcher throughout his career, but is getting more ground balls this year (37.3% GB)
Fried (1-0, 1.08 ERA) is lined up for his 3rd start. He has logged a 0.96 WHIP, 0.0 BB/9 and 6.5 K/9 in 8 1/3 IP.
- Making his 2nd start off the IL (hamstring) and could be on a more strictly managed pitch count
- Has been a slow starter throughout his career: .723 OPS allowed in March/April games; sub-.700 all other months
Astros at Braves odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:45 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Astros +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Braves -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros +1.5 (-175) | Braves -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Astros at Braves picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 5, Braves 4
Moneyline
A slight lean toward Houston here, but not an actionable one. Javier and his sub-.234 batting average on balls in play each of the last 3 years is tough to get behind. PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
More juice here. And less of a lean: PASS.
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Over/Under
BABIP-fade Javier has gone past 95 pitches in each of his last 3 starts. That’s relatively rare for him, and in similar past situations, the 4th time out has yielded a bounce.
Fried is a question mark in his 2nd start back from a hamstring issue, and Houston has hit lefties well (.793 OPS with .259 BABIP).
On a wind-blowing-out day in Atlanta, BACK THE OVER 8 (-115).
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