The Philadelphia Phillies (21-28) host the San Francisco Giants (26-21) Tuesday for the 2nd game of their 3-game series at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch is set for 6:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Giants vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.
San Francisco won the series opener 5-4 in extra innings Monday thanks to a 2-run home run in the top of the 10th inning by Giants C Curt Casali.
The Giants lead the season series 1-0.
Giants at Phillies projected starters
RHP Jakob Junis vs. LHP Ranger Suarez
Junis is 2-1 with a 2.76 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 1.4 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 in 32 2/3 IP over 4 starts and 2 relief appearances.
- Last start: Win, 9-3, Wednesday at home vs. the New York Mets with 6 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 4 K.
Suarez is 4-3 with a 4.74 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 in 43 2/3 IP across 9 starts.
- Last start: Loss, 8-4, Wednesday at the Atlanta Braves with 4 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 6 H, 1 HR, 4 BB and 4 K.
Giants at Phillies odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:34 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Giants +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Phillies -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Giants +1.5 (-180) | Phillies -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
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Giants at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Giants 6, Phillies 4
Money line
BET the GIANTS (+110) because they have a clear edge in the starting pitching matchup and are a lot more productive vs. left-handed pitching than the Phillies are against righties.
Most of Suarez’s advanced pitching metrics have declined from last year and 4 of his 5 pitches have a plus-run value (RV), according to Statcast. Whereas 3 of Junis’ 5 pitches have a minus-RV and Junis’ current swing-and-miss and contact rates are better than his career averages.
San Francisco’s lineup ranks 5th in both wRC+ (117) and wOBA (.332), 9th in BB/K rate (0.44) and 13th in hard-hit rate (29.8%) against left-handed pitching, per FanGraphs.
Philly’s lineup has a 94 wRC+ (ranked 20th), .306 wOBA (17th), 0.32 BB/K rate (24th) and a 28.3% hard-hit rate (20th) vs. right-handed pitching and 13-22 overall against righty starters.
Philadelphia’s bats have been ice-cold recently too, ranking dead-last in both wRC+ (75) and WAR (-0.1) and second-to-last in wOBA (.276) over the last two weeks.
According to Pregame.com there’s also a line freeze in the betting market as roughly 85% of the cash is on the Phillies but the number hasn’t budged off the opener. This suggests the oddsmakers are comfy with their price and want more pro-Phillies action.
BET 1 unit on the GIANTS (+110).
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
The Giants +1.5 (-180) is way too expensive for insurance on our San Francisco ML wager considering the Giants are 3-4 RL as road underdogs. San Francisco’s bullpen is too suspect to take a stab at the alternate RL.
Over/Under
PASS with a “lean” to the Over 9.5 (-112) since I prefer San Francisco’s ML and we are getting late to the party on this number. The total opened up at 9 but has been steamed up to the current price.
However, the weather forecast is predicting temperatures in the low-90s in Philly Tuesday night and hotter temperatures tend to favor hitting.
Also, Philly is 6-2 O/U in Suarez’s 8 starts, San Francisco 4-0 O/U in their last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter and the Over has cashed in 4 of the last 5 Phillies-Giants meetings.
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