The San Francisco Giants (25-21) start a 3-game series at the Philadelphia Phillies (21-27) Monday. First pitch in the Memorial Day game at Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Giants vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.
San Francisco won last year’s season series 4-2 and the Giants had a plus-16 run differential in those meetings.
The Giants prevented a 3-game sweep in its last series with a 6-4 road win at the Cincinnati Reds Sunday, but they are just 3-7 straight up (SU) in the last 10 games.
The Phillies are also 3-7 SU in the last 10, which includes a weekend 3-game sweep by the New York Mets on the road.
Giants at Phillies projected starters
RHP Logan Webb vs. RHP Kyle Gibson
Webb is 5-1 with a 3.54 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 in 53 1/3 IP over 9 starts.
- Last start: No-decision in Tuesday’s 13-12 home win vs. the New York Mets with 5 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 6 K.
- 2021 vs. the Phillies: A no-decision in San Francisco’s 10-7 in Philly April 20 with 4 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 1 HR, 2 BB and 4 K.
Gibson is 3-2 with a 3.94 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 in 48 IP across 9 starts.
- Last start: No-decision in Tuesday’s 6-5 loss at the Atlanta Braves with 5 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 8 K.
Giants at Phillies odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:56 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Giants -117 (bet $117 to win $100) | Phillies -103 (bet $103 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Giants -1.5 (+135) | Phillies +1.5 (-170)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)
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Giants at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Giants 7, Phillies 4
Money line
BET the GIANTS (-117) because they have edges over the Phillies (-103) in hitting and starting pitching and there is a reverse line movement heading toward San Francisco in the betting market.
Webb has a slightly better FIP than Gibson and 3 of Webb’s 4 pitches have a minus-run value (RV) whereas just 2 of Gibson’s 6 pitches have a minus-RV, according to Statcast.
San Francisco is 19-16 SU vs. right-handed pitching and ranks 8th in wRC+ (110), 6th in wOBA (.323) and 2nd in BB/K rate (0.47), per FanGraphs. Philly is 13-21 SU against righty starters with a 96 wRC+ (ranked 18th), .308 wOBA (16th) and 0.33 BB/K rate (23rd).
According to Pregame.com, roughly two-thirds of the money is on the Phillies, but they’ve gone from a -120 opening favorite down to the current number. It feels like the oddsmakers are laying a trap by making Philly’s ML cheaper.
BET 1 unit on the GIANTS (-117).
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Run line/Against the spread
SPRINKLE on the GIANTS -1.5 (+135), if at all, based on the aforementioned logic and since San Francisco is 10-6 RL as road favorites and Philly is 10-14 RL at home. That said, the Giants’ relief pitching is suspect so there isn’t a lot of value in their RL.
Over/Under
LEAN OVER 8.5 (-130) because both bullpens have a plus-4.20 ERA, the Giants are 6-3 O/U in Webb’s 9 starts this season and because the weather forecast is predicting temperatures in the mid-to-high-80s with 8.5 mph winds blowing out to right-center field so the ball could be jumping Monday afternoon.
However, it’s only a LEAN to the OVER 8.5 (-130) because Citizens Bank Park is last in park factor in MLB, aka the most pitcher-friendly venue, and the Phillies are 1-7 O/U in their last 8 games vs. teams with a winning record.
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