Game 1 of the Eastern Conference semifinals playoff series tips off Monday when the No. 1 seed Miami Heat host the No. 3 seed Philadelphia 76ers. Tip-off is 7:30 p.m. ET (TNT). Below, we look at the 76ers vs. Heat odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Miami pulled off a gentleman’s sweep of the No. 8 seed Atlanta Hawks by beating them 97-94 in Tuesday’s Game 5 at home without SF Jimmy Butler, whose Game 1 status for this series is up in the air.
Philly blew out the No. 6 seed Toronto Raptors 132-97 in Thursday’s Game 6 on the road, but lost MVP finalist Joel Embiid, who suffered a fractured orbital bone and concussion in the fourth quarter. Embiid has already been ruled out for Games 1 and 2.
These teams tied 2-2 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) in their regular-season series and the total was 1-3 Over/Under (O/U) in those meetings.
76ers at Heat odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:47 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): 76ers +270 (bet $100 to win $270) | Heat -360 (bet $360 to win $100)
- Against the spread: 76ers +7.5 (-115) | Heat -7.5 (-107)
- Over/Under: 208.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
76ers at Heat key injuries
76ers
- C Joel Embiid (facial fracture) out
Heat
- SF Jimmy Butler (knee) probable
- SG Tyler Herro (chest) questionable
- PG Kyle Lowry (hamstring) out
- SF Caleb Martin (ankle) questionable
- SG Max Strus (hamstring) questionable
- PF P.J. Tucker (calf) questionable
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76ers at Heat picks and predictions
Prediction
Heat 112, 76ers 101
Money line
PASS.
The Heat (-360) are 28-11 SU as home favorites with a plus-5.4 margin of victory this season and the 76ers (-360) are 8-8 SU as road underdogs with a minus-3.0 margin of victory.
More importantly, Philly is missing Embiid who’s going to be All-NBA and was sixth in on/off net rating at plus-11.5 points per 100 possessions during the regular season.
The Sixers upset the Heat March 21 on the second of a back-to-back as 8-point home underdogs when resting both SG James Harden and Embiid. Miami coach Erik Spoelstra will apply lessons learned from that meeting and Philly’s short-handed strategy in Game 1.
However, I wouldn’t pay -360 for any NBA ML favorite so PASS.
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Against the spread
BET the HEAT -7.5 (-107) for 1 unit because the 76ers +7.5 (-115) need their guards to step up in Embiid’s absence.
But we just saw Miami’s perimeter defense neutralize another ball-dominant point guard (Atlanta Hawks’ Trae Young) in the first round. The Heat crushed the Hawks in the ball-security department and Miami has the highest defensive turnover rate (TOV%) in the postseason.
Philly’s ball security was an area of weakness in the first round. The Sixers are 12th in offensive TOV% and second-to-last in defensive TOV% for these playoffs.
These issues for the Sixers will be exacerbated by the loss of Embiid, who simplifies Philly’s offense and gets teammates open looks.
76ers SG Tyrese Maxey is having a breakout performance this season but lineups with Maxey on and Embiid off the floor scored 4.4 fewer points per 100 possessions during the regular season, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).
Finally, this is a very profitable spot for a Miami team that’s 15-9 ATS with a plus-3.1 ATS margin when playing with a rest advantage and 3-0 with a plus-22.0 ATS margin when playing on 4 or more days of rest.
BET the HEAT -7.5 (-107).
Over/Under
LEAN OVER 208.5 (-110) only because this is a sharp number, both teams have run at a below-average pace and have a combined 2-9 O/U record thus far in the postseason.
However, Embiid’s loss will be felt more on defense for the Sixers since their opponent’s effective field goal shooting climbs by 11.7% when Embiid is off the floor, per CTG.
Also, we are seeing reverse line movement (RLM) headed north of the total since 76ers-Heat opened with a 207-point total but has been increased despite a majority of the action being on the Under, per VegasInsider.com.
RLM should be a red flag for any sports bettor because why would the sportsbooks make the more popular side cheaper? Hmm.
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