The Philadelphia Phillies (81-77) and Atlanta Braves (85-72) meet for a 7:20 p.m. ET Thursday night game at Truist Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Kyle Gibson is the scheduled starting pitcher for the Phillies. Across 30 games (29 starts) this season, he is 10-8 with a 3.60 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 7.4 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 across 177 2/3 IP with the Phillies and Texas Rangers.
- Allowed 4 ER over 6 IP in his last start and owns a 7.16 ERA over his last five starts.
- Owns a 2.81 ERA and 1.03 WHIP at home but has been saddled with a 4.29 ERA and 1.38 WHIP on the road. Control with a 3.7 BB/9 has been a particular issue in away games.
- Faces a Braves club which is swung around to its best platoon splits against right-handers with a .761 OPS.
RHP Ian Anderson is the scheduled starter for the Braves. He is 8-5 with a 3.60 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 through 122 1/3 IP over 23 starts.
- Owns a 2.04 ERA over his last three starts at home.
- Coming off a seven-inning start at the Arizona Diamondbacks that saw him allow just 1 ER on three base runners.
Phillies at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:20 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Phillies +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Braves -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Phillies +1.5 (-160) | Braves -1.5 (+130)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)
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Prediction
Braves 6, Phillies 4
Money line (ML)
The Phillies scored just 3 combined runs in dropping the first two games of this series. Philadelphia has lost three in a row overall. A division-leading offense that cranked out an .831 OPS from Sept. 15-25 has posted a .390 OPS over the three straight losses.
Atlanta has won five games in a row and nine of its last 10. The Braves have registered 6.0 runs per game on an .802 OPS over that stretch.
For the season, the Phils-Braves series has been an even 9-9 exchange but Atlanta has outscored Philly 84-67. One-run games make for some gray area in looking at both clubs: the Phillies are 30-24 in such games, while the Braves are just 25-30.
With a lean toward Atlanta in a high-scoring game, PASS on the money line and shoot for the Braves getting by on the run line.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The Braves are 27-14 in games decided by 5 or more runs.
BACK ATLANTA -1.5 (+130).
Over/Under (O/U)
Both starting pitchers have favorable BABIP figures, and they have expected-ERA measures significantly higher than their surface ERAs. Both bullpens have had struggles in the season’s final month.
On a warm night with a decent bit of humidity and with two good offenses that have produced at a high level in big chunks of September games, a higher-than-expected score is the strongest play in this one.
BACK THE OVER 8.5 (-125).
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