The Washington Nationals (58-81) and Atlanta Braves (73-65) play the finale of a three-game set Thursday. First pitch from Truist Park is set for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Nationals vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Nationals RHP Erick Fedde (6-9, 5.27 ERA) makes his 24th start. He has a 1.48 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 through 111 IP.
- Is 2-2 with a 5.77 ERA over 34 1/3 IP across seven starts since the beginning of August.
- Grades in the 33rd percentile or worse in hard-hit%, average exit velocity, K%, whiff% and chase rate.
Braves RHP Huascar Ynoa (4-5, 3.19 ERA) makes his 13th start and 14th appearance. He has a 1.01 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 through 67 2/3 IP.
- Is 0-3 with a 3.52 ERA through 23 IP since returning from the injured list Aug. 17.
- Has benefitted from a .244 BABIP and an 80.7% left on base rate.
Nationals at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:50 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Nationals +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Braves -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Nationals +1.5 (-105) | Braves -1.5 (-115)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)
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Prediction
Braves 6, Nationals 4
Money line (ML)
The money line price is far too high to warrant a wager despite the Braves clearly being the better of the two teams. Ynoa’s underlying numbers don’t back up his surface stats and it’s just too risky to wager more than two times your return in this spot.
Best to just PASS on the money line altogether, unless it drops to the -220 range I wouldn’t even use it in parlays.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The value is a little better for Atlanta on the run line.
Offensively, Atlanta is the better of the two teams against right-handed pitching by metrics such as wRC+, wOBA and OPS, although Washington has hit the ball very well in the second half of the season in general.
The differentiator here comes down to the bullpens. Atlanta is middle of the pack in xFIP, SIERA and K-BB%, and top 10 in ERA and FIP over the second half of the season, while Washington is last in K-BB%, ERA, FIP and xFIP, and second to last in SIERA.
I have lingering concerns about Ynoa here, but there is a partial-unit value play to be made on the BRAVES -1.5 (-115).
Over/Under (O/U)
I’d prefer if this number was a flat 9 just to add a layer of insurance but I have a slight “lean” to the Over anyway.
Fedde has been consistently underwhelming and Ynoa has scraped by with a very high LOB% and a very low BABIP. Factor in the Nats hitting the ball well and also having an atrocious bullpen, plus the wind blowing direct out of the ballpark and we’ve got a recipe for this one to reach the OVER 9.5 (+100).
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