The Atlanta Braves (62-56) take on the Miami Marlins (51-67) Monday in the opener of a three-game set at loanDepot park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Braves vs. Marlins odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Touki Toussaint is the projected starting pitcher for the Braves. Toussaint has made five starts for Atlanta. He’s 1-2 with a 4.28 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 9.2 K/9, and 3.0 BB/9 in 27 1/3 IP.
- Has been hurt by the long ball, yielding 4 home runs through 13 2/3 IP in his last three starts, and has recorded a 20.0% HR/fly ball rate over his five turns.
- Figures to benefit from the “right lean” of Miami’s typical order against right-handers as he has allowed an .870 OPS over his career against lefty bats.
LHP Braxton Garrett is the projected starter for the Marlins. He is 1-1 with a 4.65 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, and 4.1 BB/9 in 31 IP across six starts and one relief appearance.
- Allowed 5 runs on 8 hits through 3 1/3 IP in his last start Tuesday at the San Diego Padres.
Braves at Marlins odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:56 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Braves -170 (bet $170 to win $100) | Marlins +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
- Against the spread/ATS: Braves -1.5 (+100) | Marlins +1.5 (-125)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)
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Prediction
Braves 4, Marlins 3
Money line (ML)
The Braves are coming off a weekend sweep against the Washington Nationals and are 10-2 over their last dozen games. Atlanta has scored 6 runs per game on the strength of a .786 OPS and clubbed multiple home runs eight times over that stretch. The Braves banged out 11 round-trippers in their three-game sweep of the Nats.
Atlanta has been an average offensive club away from home overall this season but has registered an .817 OPS on the road through July and August.
The Marlins are coming off a three-game sweep of the Chicago Cubs. What had been a top-notch pitching club over the early months of the season has slumped since the break – Miami owns a 4.92 ERA in the second half.
The visitors are the superior nine in this one but peg Miami as more worthy than its record indicates and peg the price on Atlanta as being too high. PASS.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Miami has played a tough slate through most of July and August. It figures as a better team than one that finds itself 16 games under-.500 and isn’t helped by a 12-23 mark in 1-run games.
That’s a dubious mark in 1-run games, and that’s also a lot of them.
BACK THE MARLINS +1.5 (-125).
Over/Under (O/U)
In six of the last nine meetings between Atlanta and Miami the final score has produced a total of 9 or fewer runs. The price for Monday’s game is workable in that same direction but just barely and without a ton of conviction.
Consider a partial-unit play on the UNDER 8.5 (-120).
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