The Philadelphia Phillies (51-52) and Pittsburgh Pirates (39-64) tangle in the second game of a three-game series Saturday at 7:05 p.m. ET at PNC Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Pirates odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Aaron Nola is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies. He is 7-6 with a 4.37 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 10.9 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 over 115 1/3 IP spanning 20 starts.
The veteran right-hander has been shaky on the road with a 5.52 ERA and 1.33 WHIP over 58 2/3 IP. He posted a 7.99 ERA across five starts from June 19-July 20 but then came out and tossed an 8 2/3 inning gem in his last with 1 run allowed against the Atlanta Braves Sunday.
RHP J.T. Brubaker is the projected starting pitcher for the Pirates. He is 4-10 with a 4.67 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 9.2 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 across 96 1/3 IP over 18 starts.
Brubaker allowed 2 runs on 3 hits and a walk while punching out 6 over 4 IP in a loss to the San Francisco Giants Sunday. He yielded 3.6 HR/9 while notching a 7.30 ERA over his last five starts.
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Phillies at Pirates odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:03 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Phillies -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Pirates +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
- Against the spread/ATS: Phillies -1.5 (+100) | Pirates +1.5 (-120)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Pirates 5, Phillies 4
Money line (ML)
The Phillies went into this series off of an eight-game homestand, over which they logged a .790 OPS.
Pittsburgh won Friday’s opener 7-0 but is just 10-17 over its last 27 games.
Philadelphia has benefited from a 19-14 record in 1-run games, and the Phils’ 4.48 runs per game and 4.77 runs per game allowed doesn’t support a 51-52 mark.
The struggling Brubaker and Pirates bullpen combo makes for some risk, but Nola coming off a 116-pitch effort is in a beatable spot. The veteran hurler’s next-time-outs on high pitch counts are dotted with several disasters.
BACK THE PIRATES (+140).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The price here is competitive. Bet the PIRATES +1.5 (-120) with 1 run of insurance in the event of a loss.
Over/Under (O/U)
PASS. Tip of the cap to the betting public on this number.
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