The Philadelphia Phillies (51-51) and Pittsburgh Pirates (38-64) open a three-game series Friday at 7:05 p.m. ET at PNC Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Pirates odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Vince Velasquez is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies. In 20 games (16 starts) this season, he is 3-5 with a 5.54 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 9.5 K/9 and 5.0 BB/9 across 79 2/3 IP.
The veteran right-hander is coming off a dreadful outing that saw him allow 6 ER in 2 1/3 IP against the Atlanta Braves Saturday. Velasquez allowed 2 home runs in that start and has coughed up 7 HR over his last 15 2/3 IP (10.91 ERA, 2.04 WHIP over that stretch).
RHP Wil Crowe is the projected starting pitcher for the Pirates. He is 2-5 with a 5.89 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 8.5 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9 through 65 2/3 IP spanning 15 games (14 starts).
Crowe held the San Francisco Giants to just 2 ER over 5 1/3 IP Saturday. The 26-year-old fanned a season-high 9 batters in that game. He has given the Pirates similar outings — 2 runs allowed in nearly 5 innings — in five of his last seven starts.
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Phillies at Pirates odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:55 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Phillies -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | Pirates +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
- Against the spread/ATS: Phillies -1.5 (+110) | Pirates +1.5 (-135)
- Over/Under: 9 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Pirates 5, Phillies 4
Money line (ML)
The Phillies head into this series off of an eight-game homestand. They logged a .790 OPS over that span.
Pittsburgh lost four straight games and is just 9-17 since June 28. The Pirates were shut out in two of their last four losses and scored just 4 total runs in the other two.
Philadelphia is 2-9 over its last 11 series openers on the road. The Bucs bullpen has sputtered of late but give Crowe enough of an edge in the early innings to make the PIRATES (+120) a workable play.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The price here is competitive. Bettors preferring more of an equalizer when betting a bottom-five club should consider the PIRATES +1.5 (-135).
Over/Under (O/U)
PASS. There is a slight fade the Phillies offense lean adding to both starters being better than their surface ERAs. The pricing wipes out any value.
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