The Miami Marlins (34-45) and Philadelphia Phillies (37-41) have split the first two games of their three-game series and will finish up Thursday with a 6:05 p.m. ET first pitch at Citizens Bank Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Pablo Lopez is the projected starting pitcher for the Marlins. He is 4-4 with a 2.87 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 9.3 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 in 91 IP over 16 starts.
Lopez has stepped up his game lately posting a 2.57 ERA and 48/6 K/BB in 42 IP across his last seven starts.
RHP Zach Eflin is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies. He is 2-6 with a 4.20 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 8.7 K/9 and 1.1 BB/9 in 90 IP over 15 starts.
Eflin has faced the Marlins twice so far this season, allowing 5 ER in 12 IP with a 12/2 K/BB. He’s had home run issues on the road, but in six starts at home has put up a 2.13 ERA with a 37/3 K/BB and 3 homers allowed in 38 IP.
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Marlins at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:44 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Marlins +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Phillies -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Marlins +1.5 (-210) | Phillies -1.5 (+170)
- Over/Under: 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Marlins 5, Phillies 4
Money line (ML)
The Phillies are up on the Marlins by 3.5 games in the standings but the Marlins are far superior in run differential (+21 vs. -24). Given how well Lopez has pitched lately they also look to have the slight pitching edge in this matchup. Back the MARLINS (+105).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Four of the last five meetings between these two teams have been decided by two or fewer runs and this sets up as a game that should be close throughout. However, there doesn’t appear to be enough value to take +1.5 runs with either the Marlins (-210) or Phillies (-210). It’s probably best to just PASS on the run line.
Over/Under (O/U)
These two teams were involved in a high-scoring affair Wednesday night as the Marlins won 11-6. That was the second time in the last five games they had put up 11 runs.
With two solid pitchers taking the mound Thursday another shootout seems unlikely but neither offense is likely to be completely shut down. The final score should end up pretty close to this total but look for OVER 8 (-105) to hit in the end.
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