The Miami Marlins (28-35) host the Atlanta Braves (29-32) for the second game of their three-game set at loanDepot park Saturday. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Marlins odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Miami won the first game of this series 4-3 to extend Atlanta’s losing streak to three games. SS Jazz Chisholm was the standout for the Marlins Friday, hitting 2-for-3 with two RBIs.
Season series: Marlins lead 4-1.
LHP Max Fried is on the mound for the Braves. Fried is 3-3 with a 4.63 ERA (44 2/3 IP, 23 ER), 1.48 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 across 9 starts.
- Last outing: Win, 4-2, in 6 IP with 1 ER, 6 H, 0 BB and 4 K vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers Sunday.
- Fried lost vs. the Marlins on April 13 with 4 IP, 7 ER, 9 H, 2 BB and 3 K in Miami’s 14-8 victory.
- vs. Marlins on the current roster: 93 at-bats with a .355/.413/.656 slash line, 19/7 K/BB, 6 HR and 20 RBIs.
RHP Zach Thompson makes his second major league start for the Marlins. Thompson took a loss at Boston Monday with 3 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, and 1 K in his first career start as the Red Sox won 5-3.
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Braves at Marlins odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:59 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Braves -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Marlins +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
- Against the spread/ATS: Braves -1.5 (+100) | Marlins +1.5 (-120)
- Over/Under: 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Marlins 6, Braves 4
Money line (ML)
Slight “LEAN” to the MARLINS (+140) for a quarter unit because Miami +1.5 (-120) is a strong play and the Marlins have a much better pitching staff.
For instance, Miami’s bullpen is top-10 in xFIP, SIERA and WAR whereas Atlanta’s is below-average in all of those categories.
The Braves (-165) are overpriced because they are a public favorite, Fried is coming off a stellar 2020 campaign, and he had a winning quality start against the Dodgers in his last appearance.
However, besides his last start, Fried is in the midst of a disappointing 2021 and he’s gotten drilled by the Marlins throughout his young career.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Definitely BET the MARLINS +1.5 (-120) heavier than or instead of Miami’s money line because of the aforementioned reasons and the presumed “sharp” side of the market is backing the Marlins’ run line big time.
According to Pregame.com, 90% of the money is on Miami’s run line but 55% of the bets placed are on Atlanta’s run line and typically it’s wiser to follow the money when it’s opposite of the crowd.
Furthermore, the Marlins have a winning home record, the Braves have a losing road record, and Atlanta are just 5-9 ATS as a road favorite with a minus-2.5 run line margin.
Over/Under (O/U)
PASS with a slight “lean” toward the Over but the total is ticking up because the market is barreling into the Over and I don’t want to follow a crowd of people into what could be a trap bet.
Fried is having an off-year but the Braves are 3-5 O/U in his starts and you could make an argument that Thompson making his second career start is to his advantage vs. Atlanta because its lineup doesn’t have familiarity with his stuff.
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