The Atlanta Braves (15-17) host the Philadelphia Phillies (18-15) Saturday at 7:20 p.m. ET in Truist Park for Game 2 of their three-game set. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves with MLB picks and predictions.
Philadelphia drilled Atlanta 12-2 last night after chasing Braves starter Charlie Morton when the Phillies lineup went through the entire lineup, scoring six runs in just two outs in the 1st inning.
Season series: Phillies 5-2.
RHP Vince Velasquez is the projected starter for the Phillies. Velasquez is 1-0 with a 4.91 ERA (18 1/3 IP, 10 ER), 1.64 WHIP, 6.4 BB/9 and 11.8 K/9 over 3 starts and 3 relief appearances.
- Last outing: Win, 4-3, in 6 IP with 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 6 K Monday vs. the Milwaukee Brewers.
- Career vs. the Braves: 1-6 with a 4.83 ERA (59 2/3 IP, 32 ER), 1.59 WHIP and 10.9 K/9 over 12 starts and 2 relief appearances.
- Vs. Braves on the current roster: 148 at-bats with a .304/.373/.486 slash line, 43/15 K/BB rate, 4 HR and 15 RBIs.
RHP Ian Anderson gets the nod for the Braves. Anderson is 2-1 with a 3.27 ERA (33 IP, 12 ER), 1.21 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 across 6 starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 7-2, in 4 IP with 4 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 5 K at the Toronto Blue Jays Sunday.
- Career vs. the Phillies: 0-0 with a 4.35 ERA (10 1/3 IP, 5 ER), 1.16 WHIP and 11.3 K/9 in 2 starts.
- Vs. Phillies on the current roster: 41 at-bats with a .220/.273/.439 slash line, 16/3 K/BB rate, 3 HR and 5 RBIs.
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Phillies at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:30 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Phillies +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Braves -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Phillies +1.5 (-135) | Braves -1.5 (+110)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
Prediction
Braves 7, Phillies 5
Money line (ML)
PASS even though Atlanta’s the right side, and where I’m putting my money in the following section because based on recent performance the Braves (-175) for the game and -165 for the First 5 Innings is too pricey.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The story of Philadelphia’s 2020 season was the terribleness of its bullpen, but it has slightly improved. Philadelphia’s bullpen ERA and FIP are bottom-10 and Atlanta’s are top-10, but those stats can be misleading.
For instance, the Phillies’ relievers are top-10 in xFIP and SIERA, which are pitching-only ERA estimators, while the Braves’ relievers are bottom-10 in those metrics.
I say all this to lead into my point that I trust Atlanta could get an early lead given this starting pitching matchup, but I’m not very confident the Braves hold onto a lead.
Also, Atlanta’s lineup is top-6 in wOBA, wRC+, BB/K and ISO vs. right-handed pitching whereas Philadelphia’s lineup is in the bottom-third of the Majors in each of those categories.
BET the BRAVES -0.5 (-120) FIRST 5 INNINGS for 1 unit.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the OVER 9 (+105) alternate total for a quarter unit only since these teams have a combined 2-7 O/U record when these starters are on the mound, and I do not want to lay -120 with the regular total. However, the Over has cashed in four consecutive Phillies-Braves meetings, all in Atlanta.
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