The San Diego Padres (18-14) head up to the Bay Area to begin a three-game set with the NL West rival San Francisco Giants (18-13) Friday at Oracle Park. First pitch is set for 9:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Giants odds with MLB picks and predictions.
San Diego won the rubber match against the Pittsburgh Pirates Wednesday and defeated San Francisco 2-1 in a three-game series last weekend.
The Giants dropped back-to-back games at the Colorado Rockies to lose their previous series and are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
Season series: Tied 3-3.
LHP Blake Snell is the projected starter for the Padres. He is 1-0 with a 3.51 ERA (25 2/3 IP, 10 ER), 1.48 WHIP, 5.3 BB/9 and 13.0 K/9 across 6 starts.
- Last outing: Win in 5 IP with 1 ER, 5 H, 3 BB and 6 K against the Giants Saturday.
- Career vs. Giants: 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA (10 IP, 3 ER), 1.40 WHIP and 12.6 K/9 across 2 starts, both in 2021.
- vs. Giants on the current roster: 43 at-bats with a .302/.400/.535 slash line and 2 HR.
RHP Anthony DeSclafani gets the start for the Giants. He is 2-1 with a 2.00 ERA (36 IP, 8 ER), 0.94 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 over 6 starts.
- Last outing: Loss in 6 IP with 3 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 3 K at the Padres Saturday.
- Career vs. Padres: 1-1 with a 2.57 ERA (35 IP, 10 ER), 0.97 WHIP and 6.9 K/9 in 6 starts.
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Padres at Giants odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:20 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Padres -150 (bet $150 to win $100) | Giants +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
- Against the spread/ATS: Padres -1.5 (+115) | Giants +1.5 (-140)
- Over/Under: 7 (O: -120 | U: +100)
Prediction
Padres 5, Giants 2
Money line (ML)
BET the PADRES (-150) for three-fourths of a unit because we want to save a little bit for San Diego’s run line.
The Padres have owned the Giants over the past two seasons. They won 13 of the last 18 meetings head-to-head meetings and six of their past eight games in San Francisco.
Also, DeSclafani hasn’t been nearly as sharp as his basic pitching numbers suggest. He has pitched 15-scoreless innings in two starts against a bad Colorado Rockies lineup—neither of which were at Coors Field.
Furthermore, DeSclafani is in the 23rd percentile of hard-hit rate, 15th percentile in exit velocity and 44th percentile in K%, according to Statcast.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Not only do the PADRES -1.5 (+115) have an edge in the starting pitching department, but advanced pitching analytics indicate San Diego’s bullpen is a top-3 unit.
Padres relievers are second in both SIERA and K-BB%, first in xFIP and third in left-on-base percentage so I’m confident San Diego’s ‘pen can hold a lead.
On the other side, San Francisco’s bullpen has struggled through the first five weeks of the season. Giants’ relievers are a bottom-10 unit in home runs per nine, SIERA and xFIP.
If it’s either or definitely stick with San Diego’s money line, but I’m sprinkling a little change on the PADRES -1.5 (+115).
Over/Under (O/U)
PASS because San Diego’s lineup hasn’t gotten going yet and San Francisco has several hitters either out of the lineup or with questionable game statuses.
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