The Philadelphia Phillies (5-1) and Atlanta Braves (2-4) open a three-game set at Truist Park on Friday. The NL East foes will get the series going at 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Zack Wheeler is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies. Last season, Wheeler went 4-2 with a 2.92 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 6.7 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 in 71 IP over 11 starts. He went seven shutout frames against these Braves in his 2021 debut April 3. In that game, Wheeler fanned 10 while allowing just one base runner (one hit, no walks).
RHP Charlie Morton is the projected starting pitcher for the Braves. Last year he went 2-2 with a 4.74 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 9.9 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 in 38 IP over nine starts. In his April 3 debut against the Phillies and Wheeler, Morton yielded three runs on eight base runners in 5 IP. The veteran hurler makes this start on five days’ rest, which in recent years has been very much his best interval between turns.
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Phillies at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:30 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Phillies +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Braves -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Phillies +1.5 (-175) | Braves -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under: 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Braves 4, Phillies 3
Money line (ML)
Phillies pitching and defense has been terrific through the first week of the season. In six contests, Philadelphia has yielded more than three runs in a game just once. Atlanta has won back-to-back games after starting the season 0-4. Friday’s game marks the Braves’ first at home and the Phillies’ first on the road.
Wheeler owns a 1.37 ERA over his last 19 2/3 IP against Atlanta, but overall Braves hitters own a respectable .758 OPS against him. Likewise, Morton was on the short end of the stick in last week’s meeting, but Phillies batters collectively have posted a mere .651 OPS against him.
The Atlanta offense is ready for a bounce toward more production. Figure a slate of home games as providing a boost: the Braves were 100 points better in OPS at home last season (.797 road OPS vs. .898 home OPS).
BACK ATLANTA -135 on just a slight lean on account of price.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The Braves are the likable side in a game with a likable Under. SKIP THE RUN LINE PLAY, one that brings in enough juice to nix any value opportunity.
Over/Under (O/U)
An inward breeze is in the forecast. Both teams are coming in on a day of rest, and the rested bullpens and solid starters figure to land this one at 8 runs or below with enough frequency to warrant a solid lean on the UNDER 8 (-115).
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