The New England Patriots (2-4) are heading to Western New York this weekend to take on the Buffalo Bills (5-2). The Patriots are in desperate need of a win after losing three straight, and another loss would push the Bills further ahead in the AFC East. The game is slated for 1 p.m. ET from Bills Stadium. Below, we preview the Patriots-Bills betting odds and lines and make our NFL picks and predictions.
Patriots at Bills betting odds and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 2 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Patriots +180 (bet $100, win $180) | Bills -213 (bet $213, win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Patriots +4 (-110) | Bills -4 (-110)
- Over/Under: 40.5 (O: -115, U: -106)
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Patriots at Bills game notes
- The Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last five games, while the Bills are 0-3 ATS in their last three.
- The total has gone Over in five of the Bills’ seven games this season, but it has gone Under in each of the Patriots’ last three games.
- The Patriots are 9-1 straight up against the Bills in their last 10 meetings, including a 6-3-1 ATS record.
- New England ranks 29th in scoring and 23rd in yards per play. Buffalo is only 20th in scoring but averages 5.9 yards per play to rank 11th in NFL.
- The Patriots defense has had the third-fewest plays run against it of any team in the NFL and ranks 12th in scoring defense.
Patriots at Bills key injuries
Patriots
- WR N’Keal Harry (concussion) questionable
- WR Julian Edelman (knee) out
- CB Stephon Gilmore (knee) questionable
Bills
- OT Cody Ford (knee) questionable
- S Micah Hyde (concussion) questionable
- CB Josh Norman (hamstring) questionable
- DL Quinton Jefferson (knee) questionable
Patriots at Bills: Odds, prediction, betting lines and picks
Prediction
Bills 24, Patriots 17
Money line (?)
QB Josh Allen and the Bills offense have cooled off after a red-hot start. They’ve lost two of their last three badly to the Tennessee Titans and Kansas City Chiefs and barely beat the New York Jets in Week 7. The Bills are still the better team and New England is struggling even more than Buffalo. It’s hard to feel overly confident in this game, but I’m taking the BILLS (-213) in this pivotal AFC East tilt.
Against the spread (?)
The spread is set at 4 points in favor of the Bills at home. That was to be expected, especially after seeing how poorly the Patriots have played in their last three games. QB Cam Newton is struggling mightily, to the point where he was benched in favor of Jarrett Stidham against the San Francisco 49ers last week.
Take the BILLS -4 (-110) to win by at least 5 points.
Over/Under (?)
The Over/Under is set lower at only 40.5 points, which is partly because of how good these defenses are and partly due to the likelihood of rain and high winds impacting the game. Throwing the ball will be a challenge in 20-plus mph winds, which favors the Bills offense. It’ll be close to the projected total, but I’m going with the OVER 40.5 (-115).
Want action on this NFL game? Sign up and bet at BetMGM. If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
Also see:
- ESPN’s Bart Scott calls for the firing of Bill Belichick, the general manager (Patriots Wire)
- 7 cornerbacks the Bills could target at NFL trade deadline (Bills Wire)
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