On Saturday, the Alabama Crimson Tide will face off with the Missouri Tigers in the conference- only season opener for just the seventh time in Alabama football history.
Alabama is 4-2 in the overall series with the Tigers and is 3-0 against Missouri under Nick Saban. Not only that, but over the series history, Alabama has outscored Missouri, 178- 108. And during the Saban era, the Tide has outscored the Tigers, 123- 33.
Oddsmakers at BetMGM have Alabama listed as a 28-point favorite against Missouri.
Could the Tide cover the spread?
Yes and no.
Let’s find out why and how.
These are 5 ways the Crimson Tide could easily cover:
1. Mac Jones and Alabama’s offensive weapons
Mac Jones finished last season 3-1 as a starter. And by end of the season, Jones had a quarterback rating (186.8) that ranks as the highest of any returning signal-caller (minimum four starts) in the SEC for 2020. He also finished the season with 1,503 yards passing, 14 TDs, and 3 INTs.
All that to say, Jones not only has the experience, he also has the respect of his teammates, and that will be a game-changer for the Crimson Tide. He also showed up in big games last season against Auburn and Michigan. Jones also showed his resiliency, even after making a bad throw, he was also able to keep his composure.
When you also take a moment to remember that Alabama also has DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle returning in the receiver position.
Alabama is loaded with talent on offense, and you can expect Mac Jones and the Crimson Tide to make big plays on Saturday.
2. Najee Harris
Last season Harris’ role became more dominant on offense, especially after Tua Tagovailoa endured a season-ending injury. Harris finished the season with 1,224 yards rushing off of 209 carries. He also had a career-best 13 touchdowns.
Najee Harris deserves to be recognized on his own. Afterall, there’s a reason he’s a contender for the Heisman trophy this season, and expected to be one of the best running backs in the SEC.
You can also expect to see Alabama run the ball more this season than they have the last few years. Part of that is due to Mac Jones, but also, Alabama is loaded in the running back position.
If Najee is able to find holes in the pocket that the offensive line creates for him, you can expect him to find the end zone several times on Saturday, which will make Alabama covering the spread super simple.
3. Alabama’s defense
Sure, there may be younger guys on Alabama’s defense this season, but don’t count them out just yet. Afterall, the Crimson Tide faced a lot of adversity on defense last season after many older leaders suffered injuries.
This season, Alabama is on a mission to prove they truly deserve a shot for the national title. Led by Dylan Moses, DJ Dale, LaBryan Ray, and more, the Crimson Tide has the experience and talent to put on a show this season, starting at Missouri.
If the Crimson Tide can shut down Missouri’s running game as well as stop Shawn Robinson, Alabama has a great chance of shutting down any chance Missouri has of scoring.
Alabama will be faster and stronger this year, and thanks to the new strength and conditioning program, Alabama’s defense also has a good chance of staying healthy this season.
4. The fact that both coordinators are returning for the Crimson Tide
This in and of itself is huge.
Think about it.
Alabama has continuously had either a new offensive or a defensive coordinator each season for quite a while now.
This will be a game changer for Alabama this season, especially as they open up the season on the road in Missouri.
Alabama defensive coordinator Pete Golding and offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian are going to work together again this season to get Alabama back to the CFB playoff.
5. Missouri’s unknowns on offense
Not only is Missouri getting used to Eli Drinkwitz as the new head coach, but Missouri still has so many unknowns, including who is starting at quarterback against Alabama.
Alabama has been in this position so many times. It’s very common for the Crimson Tide to enter the opening game without naming a starting quarterback. But this year, Mac Jones is the QB1 for the Tide, and rightly so.
These unknowns for Missouri could help the Tide cover the spread, especially if Alabama can capitalize on any mistakes the Tigers make.
Okay, and now for the one reason why Alabama could struggle to cover the 28 point spread:
The fact that the season opener is an away game, with only 20% fan capacity.
This will be a trick situation for many SEC teams this season.
Not only does Alabama have to travel to Missouri for the season opener, they’ll also be playing in a stadium with only 20% capacity.
Will this affect the Tide’s energy?
Will Missouri use speakers for crowd noise that could make it hard for Alabama to communicate?
These are just a few of the many unknowns surrounding Saturday’s game.
And this will be one of the only factors preventing the Crimson Tide from covering the spread.
[lawrence-auto-related count=3]