Different is intriguing with a glut of mock drafts surfacing in the lead up to the 2020 NFL draft. Most mocks have the same two or three players heading to San Francisco with the No. 13 pick, and perhaps a handful of different projections for the No. 31 slot. Pro Football Focus gave a big shakeup with their Analytics Mock Draft 2.0.
PFF devises the analytics mock based on two criteria: positional value and college-to-pro projections. Here’s how the analytics site explains each of those elements:
1. Positional value – Our goal isn’t to pick the eventual rookie of the year, it’s to win a Super Bowl. Saquon Barkley is awesome at his job, but his job doesn’t contribute to winning nearly as much as that of his quarterback. Players who impact the passing game have the most value, and that is reflected here.
2. Our college-to-pro projections – We take into account how each player grades in different situations in college and train algorithms to project performance into a set of NFL situations. We also take into account the prospect’s athletic profile with respect to each facet of play. Here is a more in-depth look at these projections for stud playmaker Isaiah Simmons from Clemson, for example.
Those two criteria lead to an intriguing mock. Wide receiver Henry Ruggs III, a popular mock choice for San Francisco, is gone to the Giants with the fourth pick. Ruggs’ college teammate Jerry Jeudy, another frequent 49ers mock selection, goes No. 6 to the Chargers, and CeeDee Lamb is off the board to the Jets at No. 11.
With the top three receivers off the board by No. 13, the 49ers threw a curveball in the analytics mock and selected TCU wide receiver Jalen Reagor.
Reagor, 5-11, 206 pounds, is built almost identical to Deebo Samuel, but with a slightly different skill set. He never posted monster production for the Horned Frogs, racking up 148 catches, 2,248 yards and 22 touchdowns across three seasons. His best year was his sophomore campaign when he hauled in 72 balls for 1,061 yards and nine scores. He also rushed 13 times that year for 170 yards and two touchdowns.
While sliding a Samuel-like receiver in next to Samuel isn’t exactly what would most help the 49ers offense, PFF’s Eric Eager noted that Reagor compares analytically to Allen Robinson. That’s the type of player that would fit nicely in San Francisco’s receiving corps. Sprinkle in the versatility he showed during his sophomore season and the Reagor pick starts to track logically.
In reality, if the 49ers are all in on Reagor being their guy, they may be able to move back a few spots from 13 to acquire more draft capital in the middle rounds, and still select Reagor later in the first.
The 49ers’ additional first-round selection checks their need at cornerback. With the 31st pick, PFF sends Utah cornerback Jaylon Johnson to Santa Clara.
Even though corner may not top their list of needs, the value of a deep secondary outweighs the value they may get from another position. That’s why Johnson, a 6-0, 193-pound Fresno, Calif. native, is the selection.
The raw numbers are strong with seven interceptions and 27 pass breakups across three seasons with the Utes, but PFF’s George Chahrouri has the money stat. Johnson allowed a passer rating of just 57.9 on balls thrown his way in college.
Another big, physical corner with strong ball skills would fit seamlessly into the 49ers’ secondary. He’d push for a starting job right away, and would be in line to supplant Richard Sherman if he doesn’t re-sign with San Francisco after this season.
How the 49ers choose to operate in the 2020 draft will set the table for their next five or so years. What positions they pick matter less than those selections actually contributing in the near future. For now, a wide receiver and a corner early in the draft make sense.
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