The main questions most are faced with when building their fantasy roster is: Because there are so many quality pass-catchers in the league these days, when should you draft them? Do you wait? Or, do you draft them early and try to just use that position as a strength to outscore your opponents?
“The Price Is Right” often plays this game called “Hi-Lo”, where contestants have to guess if the price of an item is too high or too low.
Below is a twist on that game as it relates to this year’s wide receivers and their fantasy value. Let’s take a look at which wide receivers are being valued at the right price and which ones are plain wrong at this point during the fantasy draft season.
The price is right
D.J. Moore, Panthers, Average Draft Position (ADP) 33 — Moore will see a ton of targets in the new Panthers offense and they will most likely trail on the scoreboard often this season, which will force them to throw the ball in high volumes late in games.
Calvin Ridley, Falcons, ADP 42 — The Falcons offense has the potential to be very explosive and that means more opportunities for Ridley while most teams will focus on Julio Jones.
D.K. Metcalf, Seahawks, ADP 55 — The height, weight, speed combination for Metcalf is very impressive. He also had a really good rookie year, so look for him to take another leap with Russell Wilson in 2020.
D.J. Chark, Jaguars, ADP 56 — He compares to A.J. Green of the Bengals with the way he is built and his game really took off last year. Look for him to be a deep threat again this season in that Jaguars offense.
Robert Woods, Rams, ADP 57 — Woods is so consistent. He is just a pro in every sense of the word. With Bradon Cooks now playing for the Houston Texans, Woods should have even more opportunities to find the endzone more in Los Angeles.
Terry McLaurin, Washington, ADP 61 — Not many offensive options to be excited about on the Washington Football Team, but McLaurin is a rising star. Hopefully, they will target him a ton and let his talent shine.
Stefon Diggs, Bills, ADP 62 — The Bills paid a king’s ransom to obtain him this offseason. He is a polished technician with the ability to get open deep. Look for Josh Allen to launch it downfield to Diggs this year and for his numbers to likely be the best of his career so far.
Mike Williams, Chargers, ADP 120 — Williams was a high draft pick that has never reached his full potential. This could be the year he puts it all together and outplays his very low ADP in drafts. He is a steal if his new quarterbacks can get him the ball more.
The price is wrong
Kenny Golladay, Lions, ADP 25 — Golladay has played great recently, but this draft position makes him a WR1 on your fantasy team and that is a very expensive price tag considering other players being drafted in that same range.
Allen Robinson, Bears, ADP 28 — He had a very nice bounce-back year after finally getting over some injuries and moving to the Bears. He is a very good player, but his draft stock seems extremely high. Hard to take Robinson as a Top 30 player unless he finds an amazing volume of touchdowns again — something that he has not done since 2015 where he scored 14 times.
Adam Thielen, Vikings, ADP 31 — He is solid, but not dynamic. Now that Diggs is in Buffalo and replaced by a rookie in the starting lineup, Thielen is all alone. He is not an elite fantasy talent at the position and that is where you have to draft him. His best years are likely behind him.
Amari Cooper, Cowboys, ADP 32 — Cooper has everything you look for, except consistency. He will have huge weeks and then disappear. There are better options in the mid to late second round for you to take as his offense will probably spread the ball around more this year with all the weapons they have.
A.J. Brown, Titans, ADP 36 — The Titans are being thought of as a top team due to the playoff run they made last year. But Brown’s quarterback is Ryan Tannehill and the Titans love to run the ball, both of which hurt him. It will be difficult for Brown to replicate the big plays he had week in and week out last season, and while I expect him to be a quality wide receiver during his career, he’s not one worth his current ADP in 2020.
As you can see, it’s important to understand a player’s ADP value before your fantasy football draft begins. There is a lot of talent and all the players listed above would all help your fantasy team, but at what price?
Try taking running backs early and then wait it out for value-based wide receivers in the middle rounds, where you can maximize their value, and make sure the price is right while you build your team.