What ten college football teams should be better than the current win total projections? Here are the – potentially – ten best value bets.
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Caesars Sportsbook and BetMGM have released every college football team’s win total, line, and odds to win the conference.
There are several early win totals that appear to be a bit off – check out all of them here, compared to the CFN initial prediction for what the win total lines would be – but ten really seem to be really askew.
One quick note: win totals are for the regular season only, so no bowls or conference championships. Just in case you dabble …
10. West Virginia
Caesars Win Total: 5.5
Win Total Should Be Set At: 7
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Neal Brown was able to keep his team fighting through a rough first season. The program had to undergo an overhaul after losing a slew of key parts – including head coach Dana Holgorsen – but it kept on battling and won two of its last three games to finish 5-7.
All you’re asking for is one more win.
The team is going to be better. The offensive parts should be in place to do far more after sputtering and coughing throughout 2019, and the schedule should help.
Eastern Kentucky, Maryland, and a home game against Kansas all enough to bring a base of three wins. The Big 12 overall isn’t appreciably better, but Brown’s Mountaineers will be.
– West Virginia Schedule Analysis
CFN in 60: College Football Key Team Win Totals
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9. Colorado
Caesars Win Total: 3
Win Total Should Be Set At: 5
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Apparently, Vegas really, really, really doesn’t seem to think much of the hiring of Karl Dorrell.
It’s going to take some work with the passing game after losing QB Steven Montez and top targets Laviska Shenault and Tony Brown, but the running game should be okay and eight of the top 11 tacklers are expected to return.
The Buffs won’t be world-beaters, but four of their first six games are against teams that didn’t go bowling last year. Be warned, though, getting by Colorado State and Fresno State early on will be vital to get to four wins.
There will be an upset or two along the way, especially with UCLA, Arizona State and Washington State all coming to Boulder.
– Colorado Schedule Analysis
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8. Louisiana Tech
Caesars Win Total: 7.5
Win Total Should Be Set At: 9
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
There’s a whole lot to like about a team that won nine regular season games last season, and would’ve been at least ten if it wasn’t for a few key late season suspensions.
This year’s version should be almost as strong.
Replacing QB J’Mar Smith will be Job One, and a few of the top tacklers are done, but almost all of the top targets return, the pass rush should be great, and the schedule is more than manageable.
Seven games are against teams that didn’t go bowling, and other than road dates at Baylor and Vanderbilt – both are winnable – there isn’t a whole lot to worry about away from Ruston.
They can afford to lose to the Power Five teams, drop the game at Southern Miss, and have room to spare for another loss – like to Marshall – to get to eight wins.
– Louisiana Tech Schedule Analysis
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7. Stanford
Caesars Win Total: 5.5
Win Total Should Be Set At: 7
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
For this, you’re banking on the idea that 2019 was a strange anomaly under David Shaw.
Stanford was a consistent wrecking ball for the previous ten seasons – winning eight games or more in each one – but last year started out strange and never got going. There were too many early injuries, the offensive line was decimated, and the team couldn’t get the O going with now-Mississippi State QB KJ Costello hurting.
There’s no way Shaw suffers two losing seasons in a row.
The team is loaded with veterans, the lines should be far stronger, and a schedule with William & Mary, Arizona, and UCLA in the first month should provide a nice base of wins.
You only need six wins to get this right. and with Washington State, Oregon State, Colorado and BYU at home, there’s a chance you’ll get it with plenty of room to spare.
– Stanford Schedule Analysis
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6. Kansas State
Caesars Win Total: 6
Win Total Should Be Set At: 8.5
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
The win total is just six for a team that pulled off eight win in Chris Klieman’s first season.
A few new running backs have to emerge, but QB Skylar Thompson is back along with most of his receivers, five of the top seven tacklers return, and …
Okay, the lines need an overhaul. That’s why you play Buffalo, North Dakota, and Vanderbilt in the first three games. Even better, the Wildcats go on a run of five games in six – and six in eight – against teams that didn’t go bowling.
Assume a good early run of wins, throw in the home dates against Kansas and Texas Tech, and get a road victory somewhere over West Virginia or TCU.
Six wins is a lock. Seven … no problem.
– Kansas State Schedule Analysis