The Atlanta Braves hope to close out the World Series Sunday when they host the Houston Astros in Game 5. First pitch is scheduled for 5:15 p.m. ET at Truist Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Astros vs. Braves Game 5 odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Atlanta leads the best-of-seven series 3-1 after Saturday’s 3-2 win in Game 4. Braves SS Dansby Swanson and pinch-hitter Jorge Soler hit back-to-back solo homers with one out in the bottom of the seventh inning Saturday night to turn a 2-1 deficit into the one-run lead that ended up being the final score.
LHP Framber Valdez is Sunday’s projected starter. In the postseason, Valdez is 1-1 with a 6.35 ERA (17 IP, 12 ER), 24 H, 6 BB and 15 K.
He took a loss in Game 1 of the World Series with a stat line of 2 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 1 BB and 2 K with 2 HR allowed.
Atlanta’s LHP Tucker Davidson makes his postseason debut in what will likely be a “bullpen day” for the home team.
Davidson only made four regular-season starts this year. He was 0-0 with a 3.60 ERA (20 IP, 8 ER), 1.15 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9.
Astros at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:03 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Astros -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Braves +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Astros -1.5 (+133) | Braves +1.5 (-165)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Prediction
Braves 5, Astros 2
Money line (ML)
BET the BRAVES (+100) because they are a perfect 7-0 at home this postseason, 9-4 overall as home underdogs and I like how Atlanta’s lineup stacks up against Valdez.
Valdez pitches to contact and has an absurdly high 70.1% groundball rate (the MLB average groundball rate is 42.8%). He grades in the 37th percentile of K%, 11th percentile in both chase rate and ninth percentile of hard-hit rate.
But you don’t want contact against these Braves mashers. Also, Atlanta’s lineup is deeper and the National League no-DH rule obviously benefits the Braves.
GIMME the BRAVES (+100).
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS with a heavy “lean” to the Braves +1.5 (-165) because I’d love some insurance for our wager on Atlanta’s money line. Especially because the Braves have the best cover rate this year as home underdogs at 10-3 ATS.
However, the Braves +1.5 (-165) needs to be south of -150 for me to lay it with Atlanta’s run line.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-110) for a small wager solely to fade a market that’s hammering the Over.
According to Pregame.com, more than 90% of the action is on the Over but the total hasn’t budged since opening. In fact, several sportsbooks have made the Under more expensive despite all the pro-Over money.
Game 4 went Under with a similar pitching matchup and betting splits. Houston sent out a starter with mediocre stuff, while Atlanta had a “bullpen day” using pitchers with limited playoff experience.
Roughly 75% of the action was on the Over (according to Pregame.com), but playoff pitching prevailed Saturday. That said, I’d only “LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-110) since my handicap lacks baseball-based logic.
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