After a day off, the Houston Astros and Atlanta Braves return to action for Game 3 Friday as the World Series shifts to Truist Park for the next three nights. First pitch is scheduled for 8:09 p.m. ET (on FOX). Let’s analyze the lines around the Astros vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.
The best-of-seven series is tied 1-1 as the league champions split the first two games in Houston. The Braves won Tuesday’s opener 6-2 as slight +113 underdogs with Under 8.5 cashing by a hook. The Astros responded with a 7-2 victory Wednesday as -118 favorites and the O/U 9 finishing as a “push.”
Taking the hill for Game 3 will be Astros rookie RHP Luis Garcia (11-8, 3.48 ERA regular season), who will make his fourth start of this postseason. This will be the southpaw’s first time facing the Braves.
- 2021 postseason: 1-1, 9.64 ERA (9 1/3 IP, 10 ER), 8 H, 7 BB, 12 K in three starts
- Last outing: Win, 5 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 5-0 ALCS-clinching, Game 6 home victory vs. Boston Red Sox Oct. 22
Braves RHP Ian Anderson (9-5, 3.58 ERA regular season) will also make his fourth start of the postseason. He’ll face the Astros for the first time in his two-year career.
- 2021 postseason: 1-0, 2.25 ERA (12 IP, 3 ER), 9 H, 4 BB, 12 K in three starts
- Last outing: No-decision, 4 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 4-2 NLCS-clinching, Game 6 home win vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Saturday
Astros at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:20 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Astros +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Braves -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Astros +1.5 (-200) | Braves -1.5 (+160)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)
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Prediction
Braves 5, Astros 4
Money line (ML)
ATLANTA (-120) is the STRONGEST PLAY – 1½ times your usual wager.
Anderson has been money at home. The Braves are 7-0 in his last seven home starts, including 3-0 in the postseason. Overall, they are 12-2 in his 14 home starts of 2021,
That’s a trend I’m more than happy to hammer, especially when the sportsbook is basically making this a pick-’em game.
As for Houston’s Garcia, his last outing was an anomaly when he shut down Boston (1 hit, 0 ER, 5 2/3 IP).
He was lit up for 5 runs in 2 2/3 innings at the Chicago White Sox in Game 3 of their ALDS, a 12-6 Astros loss, in his lone postseason road start. During the regular season, he went 5-3 with a 4.24 ERA in 15 starts away from Minute Maid Park.
In his second postseason start, a 9-5 home loss to Boston, he didn’t make it out of the second inning. He served up a first-inning grand slam and was removed after walking the leadoff hitter in the second.
I’ll take Anderson and the BRAVES (-120) for the win, please.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS since we’re backing the Braves money line, and the Astros’ line of +1.5 (-200) is too costly.
ATS records:
- Regular season: Astros 77-85 | Braves 78-83
- Postseason: Astros 7-5 | Braves 9-3
Over/Under (O/U)
BET OVER 8.5 (-107) to WIN 0.4 UNITS.
O/U records:
- Regular season: Astros 86-69-7 | Braves 74-78-9
- Postseason: Astros 8-3-1 | Braves 5-6-1
Houston was the third-best Over team during the regular season and tied for the most Overs in the postseason.
After the Under cashed in the Astros’ postseason opener, they played 8 consecutive Overs before closing the ALCS with an Under and going 0-1-1 O/U so far in the World Series.
The Over is 43-34-8 at Truist Park this season but 2-3 in the postseason.
If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.
| JOHNNY’S RECORD | W-L | SP | ROI |
| SINCE JULY 8 | 73-47 | 29-17 | +21.257 |
| *–SP: Strongest plays; ROI: Return on investment | |||
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