Wisconsin somehow scored 43 points in one half against Michigan State this past Saturday. The Badgers gave up 70 points to Purdue a week and a half ago. Yet, if one was to predict how Wednesday’s game will go for Wisconsin against the Minnesota Golden Gophers, most indicators point to a bruising, physical slog which will be played in the 50s.
Wisconsin’s offense simply isn’t built for 40-minute in-game consistency, from the opening tip until the final horn. The Badgers don’t have the dead-eye shooters to space the floor and make it easier for the guards and wings to drive to the basket and create lots of free throw attempts. This team, as we know, simply doesn’t have the high-end talent needed to load up on threes and foul shots, which is what modern basketball analytics recommend as the cornerstones of a productive offense.
Playing on the road doesn’t bring out the best in Wisconsin’s offense. Even the wins for this team away from home have not been pretty: 61 points scored at Ohio State, 58 at Penn State. When Wisconsin has won on the road in the Big Ten, it has generally done so by thwarting the opponent more than by playing brilliantly on offense. That is part of the reason this game figures to be low-scoring.
The other half of the equation rests with the Golden Gophers. Minnesota is going through its worst offensive stretch of the season. In its last four games, Minnesota has scored more than 56 just once, never more than 62. Minnesota went 1-3 in those four games. The Gophers’ average shooting percentage from the field in their three losses: 32. Minnesota shot 36 percent in a 64-56 loss to Rutgers, 32 percent in a 59-51 loss to Illinois, and 28 percent in a 70-52 loss to Michigan State.
A Wisconsin road game against a motivated but bad-shooting Big Ten opponent. Does that sound like a recipe for a root-canal basketball game? If it doesn’t, then I don’t know when one will ever find a situation more conducive to a low-scoring grinder.
Put on your hard hat and your elbow pads. This should be a bumpy ride for Bucky.